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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
601 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic east of the Cape Verde
Islands. The wave extends from 07N-15N with axis near 19W, moving
W at 5 kt within the last 18 hours. The wave is associated with a
1011 mb low located near 10N19W and is being engulfed by Saharan
dry air and dust, which have significantly reduced the convection
associated with it. The CIRA LPW imagery show dry air from the
surface to 850 mb in the northern wave environment, which is
devoid of convection. A cluster of heavy showers is associated
with the center of low pressure and extends from 08N-11N between
18W and 21W. Isolated showers are elsewhere from 07N-12N E of
23W. Some development of this system is possible during the next
few days while it moves W or W-NW.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 10N-20N
with axis near 35W, moving at 15 kt within the last 24 hours.
Meteosat composite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the
wave environment. CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb
confirms dry air intrusion in the wave environment, which is
keeping the wave devoid of convection.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 08N-17N with axis
near 46W, moving west at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW
imagery show mainly dry air from the surface to 850 mb associated
with this wave. The dry air is due to the presence of abundant
Saharan dry air and dust, which continue to hinder convection at
the time.

A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean from 12N-22N with axis
near 81W, moving west at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. Aloft,
water vapor imagery show strong dry subsidence across most of the
SW Caribbean, which is inhibiting convection in that region of the
wave. However, shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean and divergent
flow aloft support isolated showers and tstms N of 17N W of 79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W and continues to 10N30W to 09N40W to 08N48W where
the ITCZ begins and continues to Venezuela near 08N60W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical waves, numerous heavy
showers are from 06N-11N between 26W and 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad inverted upper-level trough covers the W Gulf of Mexico.
This feature along with shallow moisture across the basin support
isolated showers and tstms N of 22N W of 90W. The SW periphery of
a middle to upper level anticyclone covers the E-NE portion of
the basin. Diffluent flow generated by the two upper level
features support scattered heavy showers and tstms across the SE
Gulf and isolated showers N of 26N. A surface trough is off the W
Yucatan Peninsula supporting isolated showers S of 21N E of 93W.
Otherwise, weak surface ridging is elsewhere being anchored by a
1018 mb high in the NE basin near 29N84W. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate return flow across most of the Gulf. A
tropical wave currently over the W Caribbean will enter the
Yucatan Peninsula tonight and move into the Bay of Campeche
Friday. Weak surface pressure and return flow will prevail
elsewhere for the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A tropical wave is in the west Caribbean from 12N-22N with axis
near 81W. Aloft, water vapor imagery show strong dry subsidence
across most of the SW Caribbean, which is inhibiting convection in
that region of the wave. However, shallow moisture in the NW
Caribbean and divergent flow aloft support isolated showers and
tstms N of 17N W of 79W. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough
supports heavy showers and tstms S of 11N. Water vapor and CIRA
LPW imagery show dry stable air across the remainder basin, which
is supporting fair weather. Fresh to strong trade winds continue
across the central Caribbean between 68W and 80W, which are
expected to amplify west and continue through the weekend. The
next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean by early Friday.

...HISPANIOLA... 

Hispaniola continue to enjoy fair weather this morning as stable
deep layer dry air moves across the Island. Haze and dust are
being reported in the N and SE portions Dominican Republic due to
the presence of Saharan air in the region as indicated by Meteosat
composite imagery. Except for afternoon showers to be concentrated
over the central and western portions of the Island, fair weather
is expected through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the tropical waves section for more details. In the SW N Atlantic,
a 1017 mb high is located near 26N70W. To the east of the high
center, scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are noted from
25N-28N between 65W and 69W. The remnants of a stationary front
are now analyzed as a surface trough from 30N58W to 26N63W with
isolated showers within 60 nm E of its axis N of 26N. Surface
high pressure is across the remainder basin being anchored by a
1031 mb high centered N of the Azores Islands. Little change is
expected through the next 48 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS