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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 161751
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 31.1N 57.8W AT 16/1500 UTC OR 
ABOUT 405 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
NOW 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT...MAKING EDOUARD THE FIRST MAJOR 
HURRICANE OF THE 2014 SEASON. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
29N-31N BETWEEN 56W-58W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
CENTER WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.   
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 18N28W TO A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 13N29W TO 10N29W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING WEST AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE WAS RETAINING SOME MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE 
GOES-R SEVIRI AIRMASS PRODUCT. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS 
INDICATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 
THE WAVE. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
20N50W TO 10N50W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SOME CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 18N DESPITE 
THE INTRUSION OF SAHARAN DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE 
NORTHEAST PER GOES-R SEVIRI AIRMASS PRODUCT. ADDITIONALLY THE 
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N15W TO 
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N29W TO 11N35W TO 12N41W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 12N41W TO 10N50W TO TRINIDAD. BESIDES THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120-180 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 31W-38W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...  

OVERALL INSTABILITY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF 
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE VICINITY  OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH 
EXTENDS FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER IN LOUISIANA TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE TROUGH 
AND WERE AFFECTING VAST STRETCHES OF THE COASTAL WATERS AREAS 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA. GOES-R GRIDDED LIGHTING 
DATA INDICATED THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN THE COASTAL 
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN INVERTED 
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTED A SURFACE TROUGH 
ALONG 25N97W TO 18N95W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND 
STRONG CONVECTION WERE NOTED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E-NE BASIN THAT IS ANCHORED 
BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA. THE SURFACE TROUGH 
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. A STATIONARY 
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD 
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...         

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN 
REGION IS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 10-15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15-
20 KT TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 
AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE 
HONDURAS WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS 
IN CONJUNCTION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SW 
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 77W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
BASIN IS BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER 
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...THUS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SE 
CUBA. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...                                             

MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE REGION ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS 
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. BESIDES THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON 
SHOWERS INDUCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS 
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES 
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTIONS ABOVE. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO EXTENDS NE INTO THE SW N ATLC AND IS REFLECTED AT THE 
SURFACE AS A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS THE TAIL END OF A COLD 
FRONT ANALYZED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 17:51:44 UTC