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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 292352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
that extends from 18N27W to a 1010 mb low near 12N25W. These
features are moving west at about 10 kt. The wave coincides with
a low to mid-level trough extending northward to the west of the
Cabo Verde islands along 26W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 08N-12N between 24W-30W. This area has a medium potential
for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
from 20N47W to 10N47W, moving west at about 15-20 kt. The wave
coincides with a broad and amplified 700 mb trough between 40W-
52W and abundant deep-layer moisture as noted in SSMI Total
Precipitation Water Vapor Imagery. Recent scatterometer data
depicts a surface troughing with an area of fresh trades on the
northern portion of the trough from 13N-22N between 43W-50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-17N between 46W-56W. As
this wave moves west during the next several days, fresh trades
accompanied by potentially higher gusts will move across the
waters north of the Greater Antilles and waters surrounding the
Turks and Caicos, SE Bahamas, and eastern and central Cuba
creating hazardous boating conditions.

A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula with axis
extending from 21N89W to 14N89W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave
is expected to gradually weaken over the next 24-36 hours while
enhances convection across the Yucatan Peninsula, southern Mexico
and the Bay of Campeche.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 22N17W to the special features low
near 12N25W to 10N52W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends
from 10N52W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is observed within 100
nm south of the Monsoon Trough between 28W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula enhancing
convection across the land and the Bay of Campeche. Please refer
to the section above for details. A divergent flow aloft on the
eastern periphery of an upper-level low centered over the eastern
coast of Mexico is enhancing isolated showers across the western
Gulf waters mainly west of 90W. Surface ridging prevails across
the basin anchored by a 1018 mb high centered over the western
Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle
anticyclonic flow across the area. Expect during the next 24 hours
for isolated convection to continue across the western Gulf. The
tropical wave will likely enhance the usual evening trough off the
western Yucatan overnight affecting the southwestern portion of
the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

An upper-level trough extends from over eastern Hispaniola near
21N69W SW to 17N70W to 11N79W. This is supporting cloudiness
across the northern Caribbean with isolated showers mainly north
of 17N between 68W-80W. To the south, the Monsoon Trough extends
to the north of Costa Rica and Panama enhancing convection south
of 14N between 78W-85W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean south of 14N between
70W-80W while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere.
Expect during the next 24 hours for a tropical wave to approach
the Lesser Antilles with convection. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

A upper-level trough currently noted on water vapor imagery over
the eastern portion of the island is supporting isolated showers across
the island. This pattern will continue through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A 1018 mb surface high is
centered across the western Atlantic near 27N77W. To the
east, an upper-level trough is reflected at the surface as a
trough that extends from 25N68W to 21N69W. Isolated convection is
observed along this trough. Another surface ridge extends across
the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high centered
near 40N33W. Little change is expected through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA