000
AXNT20 KNHC 140437
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 16N, 
moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers are observed near the
southern portion of the wave axis.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 
15N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is 
noted at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are present near the
wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 19N,
extending across eastern Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica and 
into the eastern Pacific. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt.
A few showers near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 05N35W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N37W to 02N50W. No significant convection is
evident along the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough extends from the central United States 
southward across Texas and NE Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf 
waters, and is providing unstable conditions to the east of the 
trough. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
northern Gulf waters. At the surface, the Gulf is mainly 
influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical 
ridge, extending westward across Florida and into the central Gulf.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in
Mexico result in moderate to fresh SE winds over much of the
western and central Gulf waters. Seas in the area described are
3-5 ft (1-1.5 m). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
seas prevail.  

For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across the
Gulf through the next several days. Fresh northeast to east
winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a
trough develops daily and moves westward. Moderate to fresh
southeast winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south-
central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder
of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on
tropical waves and active convection across the basin. 

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure centered just east of Bermuda and lower pressure over 
Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to 
locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and 
central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters
are 5-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the
basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern
South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate 
to rough seas over most of the central and west-central Caribbean 
through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong 
speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight 
hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to begin on 
Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds will
prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba and the SW Caribbean
where gentle to moderate winds are expected through early next 
week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical N Atlantic
zones through early next week. Moderate to locally rough seas 
with these winds will gradually subside through Sat night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on
tropical waves and active convection across the basin. 

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to
fresh easterly winds south of 25N and west of 40W. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). In the eastern Atlantic, moderate
to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft (2-3 m) are noted
north of 20N and east of 22W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main
feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next 
week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to 
locally strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N 
during each late afternoon and at night through early next week. 

$$
Delgado