000
AXNT20 KNHC 161700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
16N with axis near 40W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No 
significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
15N with axis near 50.5W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 10N to 12N between
46W and 49W. 

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis near 81W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is ahead and along the wave axis extending over
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and western Panama offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues 
southwestward to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 06N29W to 05N36W 
and then from 04N42W to 02N48W. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is from 07N to 12N between the west coast of Africa 
and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 
22W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge continues to extend from the central Atlantic into the 
Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and 
seas of 3-5 ft west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Otherwise, a surface 
trough is supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms 
with likely gusty winds and rough seas offshore Veracruz and over 
the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is also 
depicted over the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each 
afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough 
develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise, surface
ridging extending across most of the basin from the western 
Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and 
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Fri night.
Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are forecast 
to prevail across the eastern half of the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding a tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean.

The Caribbean is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge
centered by a 1026 mb high near 32N37W. The pressure gradient 
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over the SW 
Caribbean results in strong to near gale-force easterly winds in 
the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Seas in these 
waters are 8-11 ft. The strongest winds and seas are noted off NW 
Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate 
seas are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades 
are elsewhere, except in the lee side of Cuba where winds are 
gentle to moderate. 

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and 
rough seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions 
of the SW Caribbean through Fri night due to a prevalent Atlantic 
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of 
Honduras through Tue and then stay strong through Thu while 
expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are 
expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW 
Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding tropical waves moving across the central Atlantic.

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire subtropical
Atlantic waters, extending from a 1026 mb high pressure near
32N37W. Moderate to fresh easterlies are ongoing across the Great
Bahama Bank, and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola offshores. The 
passage of two tropical waves is supporting winds of similar speed
between 42W and the Lesser Antilles with 7-8 ft seas. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are ongoing between the NW coast 
of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate or weaker winds are
elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, 
scattered showers are over the Dominican Republic offshores due to
a deep layer trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, Moderate to fresh easterly winds 
are forecast south of 25N through Fri night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night into late week as the Bermuda High builds.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE 
Florida through Thu associated with a surface trough extending 
along the eastern United States. Moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week. 

$$
KRV