346 
AXNT20 KNHC 220537
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu May 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 32W, to the south of 13N, 
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N to 06N between 28.5W and 35W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 12N17W 
and extends southwestward to near 06.5N29W. The ITCZ extends from
05.5N35W to 01.5N47W. Aside from the convection associated with 
the tropical wave, a cluster of moderate to strong convection 
covers the waters from 02N to 09N east of 27W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front crosses Florida Big Bend, the NE Gulf and SE 
Louisiana, then continues as a stationary front to SW Louisiana. 
The front is generating isolated to scattered showers. A surface 
trough is analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds are observed west of 90W, except for moderate to
fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas
are 2 to 5 ft across the basin. Smoke intensity from agricultural
fires over Mexico continue to be medium over the western Gulf, 
while light smoke density prevail across the rest of the basin W 
of 87W.

For the forecast, a weak cold front extending W to E over the 
northern Gulf coastal waters will sink southward across the NE 
Gulf through Thu, then stall and lift north while dissipating Thu 
night. High pressure will build across the NE Gulf in the wake of 
this front and dominate the basin through Mon. Gentle to moderate 
winds will freshen in the western Gulf starting Sat night. E winds
will pulse fresh to locally strong along and just north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as
a trough develops daily and drifts westward at night. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are expected to maintain
hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf 
through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered E of the Bahamas near
24N66.5W, and extends a ridge westward toward the central Bahamas.
The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the Colombia 
Low is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the east 
and central Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Light 
to gentle E to SE winds are observed across the NW Caribbean. Seas
are generally 3 to 5 ft, with the exception of 5 to 7 ft over the
south-central Caribbean, and 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba, the 
Windward Passage, and regional waters of Puerto Rico. The East 
Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean, and is
helping to induce some shower and thunderstorm activity. Residual
isolated showers from this afternoon convection over the Greater 
Antilles continue to drift offshore over the northern part of the 
basin. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure prevails across the Atlantic
along 24N tonight between the Bahamas and 60W and will shift NE 
through Thu. High pressure across the NE Atlantic will gradually 
build westward along 25N and into the Bahamas Thu night through 
the weekend, which will strengthen the ridge. Moderate to fresh 
winds in the central Caribbean will strengthen to fresh to strong 
Thu through Fri, then persist through the upcoming weekend, 
gradually expanding westward to Nicaragua. Winds will pulse to 
fresh to strong across the Gulf of Honduras through the period. 
Moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic 
will freshen Fri into the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N49.5W and 
extends southwestward to 27N57.5W. The pressure gradient between 
a 1032 mb high pressure located near the Azores and the cold 
front supports an area of moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 
27N between the front and 42W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within these 
winds. As previously mentioned, a 1017 mb high pressure is located
E of the Bahamas near 24N66.5W. Under this weather pattern, 
gentle to moderate winds are over the waters W of 55W, with a 
moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing between 20W and 42W. The 
pressure gradient also tightens between the Azores High and lower 
pressures over NW Africa, resulting in fresh to locally strong N 
to NE winds and rough seas from 20N to 31N E of 25W, including 
the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
elsewhere, except in the vicinity of the Bahamas and coastal 
waters of E Florida where slight seas are observed.

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL)tracking product from CIMSS indicate 
another outbreak of African dust over the eastern Atlantic, mainly
E of 30W. Saharan Air Layer activity usually ramps up in mid- 
June, peaks from late June to mid-August and begins to rapidly 
diminish after mid-August.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak high pressure ridge 
extending W to E along 24N tonight will become reinforced Thu 
night through the weekend, as strong high pressure over the NE 
Atlantic builds westward into the region. The resultant pressure 
gradient south of the strengthened ridge will support fresh winds 
S of 22N. A series of weak frontal troughs will sweep eastward 
across the waters N of 28N through the period.

$$
KRV