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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261719
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS AND 
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W AND CONTINUES TO 03S27W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 04S38W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06S-
06N BETWEEN 08W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW 
MEXICO/TEXAS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 1500 UTC HAS 
ENTERED THE GULF JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST FROM 30N94W TO 27N97W. 
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE 
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE 
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH 
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER 
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH 
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO THE N GULF COAST ANYWHERE 
FROM THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 97W TO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA ALONG 
84W. GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS OF UP TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING AROUND 
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NW 
OF THE COLD FRONT. AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION...S TO SE WINDS OF 
15 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF 
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS 
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS 
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT 
FRIDAY MORNING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONT OVER THE GULF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN LATE 
TONIGHT AND EASTERN BASIN ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE 
THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH DIFFLUENCE AND DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVELS PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. TRADE WINDS OF 
15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
WINDS LOCALLY UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 
HONDURAS...AND WEAKER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 
CUBA. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME 
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JAMAICA TO THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE NW 
PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL CROSS 
THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.                                

...HISPANIOLA...                                          
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING 
AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS 
FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE 
REGION FROM THE NW MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO 
THE ISLAND ON SUNDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD OVER 
THE WESTERN ATLC. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH 
NEAR 35N63W IS PRODUCING SE FLOW OF 15 TO 20KT W OF 70W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WELL IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND 
TEXAS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N 
AND W OF 75W TO THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NW 
BAHAMAS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N43W AND EXTENDS 
SW TO 26N50W TO 23N61W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 
1031 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR 
WEATHER OVER THE ATLC S OF 32N AND E OF 40W. WINDS AND 
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OFF THE E COAST OF FL AHEAD OF 
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WATERS BY FRIDAY 
EVENING...ADVANCING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA SATURDAY 
NIGHT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Mar-2015 17:20:00 UTC