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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 011033

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

A strengthened pressure gradient across the south-central
Caribbean Sea is generating near gale to gale force NE to E winds
in the Gulf of Venezuela and in the near coastal waters off of
Colombia. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Tropical wave extends from 06N20W to 15N26W moving W at 15 kt.
Examining long-term METEOSAT satellite imagery and Hovmoller
diagrams...the wave has tracked across Africa the past few days
with persistent active convection. However...while energy
continues moving westward...the wave exhibits a lack of convection
at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 05N36W to 13N40W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 34W-43W
and remains embedded within Saharan dust north of the Monsoon
Trough region. As a result...widely scattered moderate convection
is confined to 03N-08N between 33W-42W.

Tropical wave extends from 03N56W to 12N54W moving W at 20 kt.
This wave is likely the southern vorticity maximum that lagged
slowly behind the tropical wave to the west currently along 66W.
This piece of energy coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing and a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity of 10N55W
with widely scattered moderate convection from 08N-15N between

Tropical wave extends from 05N66W to 16N65W moving W at 20 kt.
This wave is the northern vorticity maximum that moved well west
of the tropical wave currently along 55W. The more dominate
feature the last few coincides with 700 mb troughing
over the eastern Caribbean Sea between 61W-70W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 16N-19N between 61W-67W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N78W to 15N82W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave continues moving within the southern periphery of a mid-
level ridge anchored to the north with axis along 23N/24N.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is across northern
Colombia...Panama...and Costa Rica S of 11N between 73W-87W.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
04N38W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N38W to 03N51W. Outside of convection associated with tropical
waves...scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between
10W-17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N
between 27W-33W...and from 01N-06N between 36W-48W.


Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over much of the eastern CONUS with the base dipping to
30N. Global model fields indicate mid-level shortwave energy
extends from over northern Florida SW to the central Gulf waters
near 25N90W. The troughing supports a stationary front extending
from central Alabama to coastal Louisiana and west to 29N99W in
southern Texas. Low-level moisture convergence south of the front
and in the vicinity of a 1013 mb low centered in the NW Gulf near
28n94W is providing focus for isolated showers and tstms generally
N of 26N. To the south...a surface ridge axis extends from across
southern Florida and the Florida Straits to the SW Gulf near
22N97W. Generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds
are occurring across the basin this morning and this overall
pattern is expected through Monday night.

Water vapor imagery indicates NW flow aloft over much of the
western Caribbean providing overall fair skies this morning with
the exception of isolated showers occurring across the adjacent
coastal waters of Cuba N of 20N between 78W-83W..and stronger
scattered showers and tstms S of 11N between 74W-82W. The
presence of a tropical wave along 81W is enhancing this strong
convection. Farther east...upper level troughing associated with
an upper level low centered north of Hispaniola near 21N72W dips
south over the central Caribbean providing moist southwesterly
flow aloft E of 72W. While most of this moisture is in the form of
middle to upper level cloudiness...the addition of a tropical wave
along 66W will provide low-level focus for scattered showers and
tstms the next couple of days across the basin as the wave moves
W. Currently scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the
NE Caribbean from 17N-19N between 61W-67W. Fresh to strong trades
are expected to persist generally between 68W-80W through the
weekend with near gale to possibly gale force conditions within
close proximity to the coast of Colombia.

Currently...a few isolated showers are possible through the
morning hours across the island. Southwesterly flow aloft is
noted on water vapor imagery as an upper level low is centered
north of the island near 21N72W. This environment along with peak
daytime heating and instability will promote isolated showers and
tstms again later today during the late afternoon and early
evening hours.

An upper level ridge axis extends NE from an anticyclonic
circulation centered over the NW Bahamas near 26N79W providing a
favorable upper level diffluent environment on the northwestern
periphery of the ridge. Widely scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring N of 25N W of 78W. Otherwise...the remainder
of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored across the central North Atlc with ridge axis extending
from 30N60W to 24N80W. This surface ridge also influences much of
the central and eastern Atlc as the 1034 mb high is centered W-NW
of the Azores near 41N36W.

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