AXNT20 KNHC 291023
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A strengthened pressure gradient is expected to materialize across
the Gulf of Venezuela by 01/0000 UTC and generate near gale to
gale force NE winds. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
Tropical wave extends from 07N24W to 14N30W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing S of 13N between
23W-30W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. As a result
scattered moderate convection is confined from 04N-08N between
Tropical wave extends from 06N44W to 17N50W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 43W-53W
and remains embedded within Saharan dust. Isolated moderate
convection is from 08N-10N between 44W-46W.
Tropical wave extends from 04N63W to 12N61W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave continues moving on the southern periphery of a SW North
Atlc mid-level ridge anchored near 28N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is across Venezuela from 04N-11N between 65W-68W...and
from 11N-13N between 61W-64W.
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
07N23W to 07N29W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 07N29W to 08N34W to 05N46W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm either side of a line from 10N14W to
05N29W...from 05N-12N between 35W-41W...and from 05N-08N between
GULF OF MEXICO...
Primarily northeasterly flow aloft prevails between an upper level
low centered over the SW Gulf waters near 20N97W and an upper
level ridge axis extending along 28N/29N from an upper level
anticyclone centered near 28N82W to southern Texas near 29N98W.
Upper level diffluence associated with the ridging and weak
surface troughing analyzed from the Florida panhandle into a 1014
mb low centered near 29N92W to the Texas coast near 28N97W is
supporting isolated showers and tstms N of 26N between 87W-97W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the basin remains relatively tranquil
due to a weak ridge axis extending across the basin from a 1016 mb
high near 27N83W to a 1018 mb high near 23N99W. Generally gentle
to occasional moderate anticyclonic winds are expected through
Wednesday night as the ridge axis remains nearly stationary. The
frontal troughing to the north will also remain stationary through
the remainder of the week.
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean
near 12N83W. This feature is providing an diffluent environment
aloft to support widely scattered showers and tstms generally S
of 15N between 81W-86W. Other widely scattered showers and tstms
are occurring within the Gulf of Honduras region and across
interior portions of Belize and Guatemala this morning. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a very broad
troughing aloft as an upper level low is centered over the SE
Bahamas near 23N72W. The troughing supports a few lingering
isolated showers across Hispaniola and the adjacent coastal waters.
In addition...a tropical wave along 62W is introducing isolated
showers and tstms to the Windward Islands at this time with
stronger convection occurring across interior portions of central
Venezuela. The wave is expected to move west and increase
precipitation probabilities during the next few days for the
southern portion of the basin. Finally...while moderate to fresh
trades prevail across much of the basin...fresh to strong trades
persist S of 16N between 67W-79W due to a strengthened pressure
gradient across the south-central Caribbean region. Little change
is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Currently...isolated showers are continuing this morning.
Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery and this
environment along with peak daytime heating and instability will
promote isolated showers and tstms again later today during the late
afternoon and early evening hours.
A 1011 mb surface low is centered offshore of North Carolina near
34N77W providing focus for scattered showers and tstms generally
NW of a line from 28N80W to 32N74W. Farther northeast...a middle
to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery
near 34N65W that is supporting scattered showers and isolated
tstms N of 30N between 62W-69W. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored on a 1035 mb high centered
W-NW of the Azores near 41N39W.
For additional information please visit