656 
AXNT20 KNHC 101014
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near the W coast of Africa along 
19W from 05N to 19N. No significant convection is noted at this
time.

A second tropical wave is along 47W from 06.5N to 15N, and is 
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
depicted from 07N to 09N between 44W and 47W.

Another tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its
axis is along 61W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted S of 11N between 50W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues 
southwestward to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 
05N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical 
waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N 
between 22W and 43W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends across the Gulf waters supporting a 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas, except 
for fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the 
eastern Bay of Campeche. Showers and thunderstorms are affecting 
the NE Gulf offshore waters of Panama City Beach, Florida and 
Mobile, Alabama.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge 
across the Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh E
to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough
develops daily and moves westward, and briefly reach strong 
speeds at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere in the 
western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds 
across the remainder of the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Please, see
the Tropical Waves section above for more details. 

Scattered moderate convection prevails over parts of the Greater 
Antilles and Central America due to local sea breezes and 
mountain upslope lifting. A diffluent pattern aloft is also 
helping to induce this convection. Elsewhere, shallow moisture, 
embedded in the trade wind flow, is moving across the basin 
producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

The pressure gradient between high pressure across the Atlantic
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades over 
the south-central, SW Caribbean, and the Gulf of Honduras. Over
the south-cetral part of the basin moderate seas, except for rough
seas offshore of NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades prevail 
elsewhere across the basin along with moderate seas, except for 
the NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds and slight seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of the region will prevail 
through the week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades
and moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin, 
spreading westward through the week as a tropical wave currently 
in the Tropical N Atlantic moves through the basin. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail in the SW Caribbean. Winds will pulse 
to fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening 
hours. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will 
be rough with the strongest winds, as well as in the Tropical N 
Atlantic, continuing through the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. 

The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the entire Atlantic forecast 
area. Fresh to strong trades are along the southern periphery of 
the ridge, particularly S of 18N W of 40W. Rough seas are within 
these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted between the west
coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Fresh easterly winds 
are N of Hispaniola, including the Turks and Caicos Islands to 
about 23N with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build 
modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida through today, then 
weaken slightly thereafter. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse 
each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola, with pulsing 
moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere south of 22N 
through the midweek until the high weakens. Fresh to strong winds 
off NE Florida will dissipate late this morning as a frontal 
trough off the Carolinas weakens.

$$
ERA