Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131134
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 10N12W ALONG 7N17W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS 
CONTINUES FROM THERE ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-34W THEN S OF 
THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S45W. SMALL 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG ARE FROM 1N-5N 
BETWEEN 8W-12W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 1N-5N W OF 25W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE N 
GULF COAST NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO COVERS 
THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. 
THE SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF WHILE THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF IS UNDER NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. THE SURFACE FLOW 
CONVERGING OVER THE W GULF WITH THE UPPER FLOW IS PRODUCING 
DENSE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 89W LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY 
RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TODAY. A COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE 
N GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE STALLING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 
THE CENTRAL GULF WED. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N ON WED. 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON THU 
EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO BY THU AFTERNOON AND 
SHIFTING OUT OF THE GULF FRI NIGHT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS 
THE W ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE TI BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS IT 
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N70W TO JUST OFF THE NE NICARAGUA 
COAST NEAR 14N83W. REMNANT MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM W OF THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN FRONT 
AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 73W. COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 
CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. 
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND COLOMBIA 
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TO OVER NICARAGUA AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
THEN TURNS N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS 
MORNING. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT 
THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W CONTINUING SW ALONG 
25N61W TO OVER HISPANIOLA WHERE IT DISSIPATES INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
NEAR 18N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 
NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT WITH 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W 
ATLC TO 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD BEHIND 
THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. A 
SECOND BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS 
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N34W ALONG 23N36W TO 14N56W SUPPORTING A 
SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 
NM OF LINE FROM 29N34W TO BEYOND 32N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 
31N38W SW TO 21N60W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
ATLC MON WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE AND 
DISSIPATE BY TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN 
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 
SETTING UP OVER THE NW ATLC TUE. A SECOND FRONT WILL PASS 
THROUGH THE W ATLC N OF 28N WED AND THU. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE 
OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST FRI. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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PAW