000
AXNT20 KNHC 221037
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jul 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 19N
from 05N to 18N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 10N to 12N between the coast of 
Africa and 22W. 

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W from 
05N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are limited to within 60 nm either side 
of the southern part of the wave from 08N to 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 52W from 03N
to 17N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 10N to 15N between 52W and 57W. Environmental
conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable around the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and 
continues southwestward to 13N25W, then westward to 13N35W and 
southwestward to 09N41W and west-northwestward to 09N41W. Aside
from convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 24N and
28W and also between 30W and 41W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

The interaction between an upper-level trough dropping southward 
toward the region and a surface trough over the FL Peninsula are 
resulting in scattered moderate convection over portions of the 
eastern Gulf. A weak 1017 mb high pressure centered near 29N88W 
dominates the basin, resulting in moderate or weaker anticyclonic 
winds and seas of less than 3 ft. The exception is to the east 
of the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to locally strong NE winds 
are ongoing. 

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will prevail 
across the basin through Wed night maintaining gentle to moderate 
winds along with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong 
northeast to east winds will pulse along the Yucatan Peninsula 
each afternoon and evening for the next few days as a trough 
develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche
at night. Looking ahead, winds may increase to fresh speeds 
across the NE Gulf on Thu and Thu night and across the north- 
central part of the basin on Fri as a broad and weak area of low 
pressure moves in a general westward motion across the northern 
Gulf. This system will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm 
activity over most of the eastern and north-central Gulf waters 
starting Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection
over the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between 
high pressure north of the region and the Colombia low pressure 
is sustaining fresh to strong northeast too east winds across the
south-central Caribbean along with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Moderate 
to locally fresh trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft remain across most 
of the rest of the basin, but winds in the NW Caribbean are 
moderate or weaker, with lower seas of 2 to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
over the south-central Caribbean through Wed. Fresh to locally 
strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas in the Windward 
Passage are expected to continue through the forecast period. A 
large tropical wave is expected to move into the Tropical N 
Atlantic today through Wed, reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wed 
morning, and moving just south of Puerto Rico on Thu morning. This
wave is likely to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over 
these waters in addition to being accompanied by fresh to strong 
trades near its northern portion.

satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
confined to the far southwestern section of the basin south of
12N and west of 78W. This activity is being enhanced by the
eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Aside from scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the 
vicinity of the Bahamas and also north of the Bahamas from 
27N to 31N between 74W and 78W, the only convection is associated
with the monsoon trough or tropical waves and is described in the
sections above. The northern portions of the basin are dominated 
by the Azores high, bringing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 
4 to 6 ft for waters N of 20N. To the south of 20N, moderate to 
locally fresh trades are present along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 
Farther west, west of 20W and south of 31N, fresh to locally 
strong north to northeast winds continue along with seas 
of about 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will 
continue to dominate the weather pattern across the forecast 
region through Wed producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
flow along with mostly moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong 
winds and moderate seas from just north of Hispaniola to 22N,
including the approaches to the Windward Passage are expected to 
continue through the rest of the forecast period. These winds may 
reach 30 kt on Wed and Thu night. A frontal boundary is forecast 
to reach the NE waters toward the end of the work- week with 
little change in winds and seas. 

$$
Aguirre