936 
AXNT20 KNHC 291632
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jul 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1632 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 18.5N, 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 06.5N to 14N between 22.5W and 32W. 

An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41.5W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
present from 05N to 15N and between 35W and 43W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is 
depicted at this time in association with this wave. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78.5W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is 
depicted at this time in association with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87.5W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Most of the convection associated
with this wave is found over the Eastern Pacific. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19.5N16.5W and 
continues southwestward to 09N33W and to 05N50W. No ITCZ has been
depicted in the latest surface analysis. The convection across 
the area has been described in the Tropical Wave section above.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Upper jet dynamics is supporting a numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms from the north- central Gulf to the 
south- central Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also 
active off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, in the far southwest 
Gulf. A trough is analyzed off the western coast of Yucatan. Elsewhere,
1021 mb high pressure is centered over eastern Mexico, with a 
weak trough over the eastern Gulf. This pattern is supporting 
gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf,
except for 3 to 4 ft seas over the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin into Sat,
supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to 
moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active over the NW and W
part of the basin, mainly, W of 80W. These thunderstorms are the 
result of complex interactions of a tropical wave in the vicinity 
and an upper trough over region. Lower pressure extends over the 
southwest Caribbean along the monsoon trough from northern 
Colombia westward to Costa Rica, anchored by 1010 mb low pressure
over northern Colombia. While the subtropical ridge north of the 
area is not particularly strong, there is enough of a gradient 
with the lower pressure area to support fresh to locally strong 
trade winds over the south- central Caribbean, where seas are 5-8 
ft. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere across
the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh winds
and rough seas over the central Caribbean through Sat, with winds
pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia. Generally moderate 
winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave accompanied
by scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to move 
through the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat and 
through the eastern Caribbean later on Sat and Sat night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 29N between 59W
and 66W along a surface trough. Another surface trough is
supporting scattered moderate convection from 23N to 28N between
59W and 64W. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle breezes 
west of 65W, along with 2 to 4 ft seas, although moderate to 
locally fresh E winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are likely still ongoing
off the north coast of Hispaniola. The rest of the tropical 
Atlantic is under the influence of an extensive high pressure 
system located north of the Azores. Fresh to locally strong N-NE 
winds and moderate seas are occurring east of 30W and north of 
20N. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast region into Sat, supporting 
mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over 
the region. The northern portion of a tropical wave may bring 
fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds north of the 
Leeward Islands Fri through Sat night. 

$$
KRV