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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230509
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF 
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 03N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT 
POINT AND CROSSES THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 02S40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 06N10W TO 03N20W. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 26N93W.  AS THERE IS ALMOST NO PRESSURE GRADIENT 
PRESENT...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS 
OR WEAKER.  NO DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE 
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF TODAY.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION BROKE OUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST-FACING SLOPES 
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD 
DISSIPATE...AS IS TYPICAL...LATER THIS MORNING.  THE WEAK 
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...THOUGH WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  THE 
DIURNALLY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO WILL CONTINUE...BUT 
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE GULF DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM 
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JAMAICA TO THE NORTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO 
EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA...EASTERN BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA 
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER 
PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA...DUE 
TO DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE...AS IS 
TYPICAL...LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH MORE OF THE SAME IS LIKELY 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND NORTHERNMOST SOUTH AMERICA. THE WEAK NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE 
TRADEWINDS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY FASTER CONDITIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM 
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JAMAICA.  THIS HAS HELPED 
INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ALSO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR 
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN 
OCCLUDING GALE-FORCE LOW OF 997 MB PRESSURE CENTERED AT 
38N61W...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  THE 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AT 32N59W AND EXTENDS TO 
23N65W.  AT THAT POINT...THE FEATURE BECOMES A TROUGH WHICH 
EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT/TROUGH.  A 
LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR POLEWARD DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AND PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN 
AFTER THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH.  A NEW COLD FRONT WILL 
EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND 
QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AND MERGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE 
ORIGINAL FRONT.  WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS NEXT FRONT MAY 
REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FARTHER EAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST WITHIN OUR NORTHERN 
BOUNDARY.  THE FEATURE IS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N43W TO 
29N33W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT TO 32N20W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK 
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD 
GRADUALLY FADE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Apr-2014 05:09:39 UTC