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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W SW 
TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 17W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 MB LOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT 
WATERS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS NORTHERN 
FLORIDA NW TO THE PANHANDLE...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE 
TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
EXTENDING INLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN 
TEXAS...EXTENDING WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST. AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT...FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W OF 90W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REMAINING WESTERN GULF S OF 26N 
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. MOSTLY SE TO E WIND FLOW OF 15 KT ARE 
W OF 90W WHILE LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. 
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN 
BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF 
90W. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
SUNDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE 
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF 
15N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS 
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING IS OVER THE HALF WESTERN BASIN WHILE A TROUGH COVER THE 
REMAINDER BASIN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG 
WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW 
PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND NE 
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...WESTERN 
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON PANAMA 
COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY 
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED 
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S 
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG 
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS 
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED 
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE 
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER 
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 
30N33W SW TO 26N45W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT 
ALONG 27N61W TO 27N66W TO A 1014 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA ADJACENT 
WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT THEN CONTINUES SW TO CAPE 
CANAVERAL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. SURFACE 
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Apr-2015 06:03:10 UTC