Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 021047
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 30.1W AT 02/0900 UTC 
OR ABOUT 410 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 9 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE LOW LEVEL 
CENTER IS CURRENTLY EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST FROM 17N-21N 
BETWEEN 25W-28W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 6N-
14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SSMI TPW DOES 
NOT SHOW ANY SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA 
NEAR 18N71W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N72W MOVING W 20-25 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS SPLIT AND 
IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SSMI 
TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP 
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 19N TO 
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED 
DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 18N W 
OF 84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 19N16W TO 15N22W THEN RESUMES S OF TROPICAL STORM FRED 
NEAR 12N30W ALONG 9N39W TO 7N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 31N-45W AND WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 39W-49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA S OF 10N W OF 10W AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 17W-22W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS INTO THE 
GULF NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERING THE 
W GULF AND IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF 94W AND N OF 24N FROM 90W-
94W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TAMPA FLORIDA EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERING THE E GULF. A SURFACE 
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA INTO THE GULF 
NEAR 30N84W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N84W THEN SW TO 27N87W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF 85W AND WITHIN 
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N83W TO 23N91W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS 
BUILDING S OVER THE NW GULF AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH 
OVER TENNESSEE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NE AND GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE TODAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE INTO 
THE E/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
AN UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED S OF THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS NEAR 18N81W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-83W AND N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC 
TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS 
PREVIOUSLY THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 
22N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 60W-69W. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH IS S OF PANAMA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W TO 
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN 
THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL 
WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA TODAY. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH 
THU NIGHT. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER 
HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER HAITI AND THE GULF OF GONAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER 
OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SE EARLY THU. 
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THU 
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ISLAND 
TODAY AND EARLY THU. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER TAMPA FLORIDA AND EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS E ALONG 27N73W TO 26N53W. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS 
OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N55W TO 29N57W AND IS 
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-56W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH DIPS S INTO THE 
E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N35W ALONG 25N42W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
22N56W THEN TO OVER HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 32N37W ALONG 30N38W TO 28N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 52W-71W. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N69W. SURFACE 
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A WEAK TROUGH SINKS 
SLOWLY SE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 10:47:24 UTC