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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 261803

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis near 28W
from 07N-15N, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. Saharan
dry air and dust are within the wave environment, thus inhibiting
convection development.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 76W S of
15N to inland Colombia, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave coincides with a broad inverted trough at 700 mb
and a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb as shown
by CIRA LPW imagery. Strong deep layer wind shear in the vicinity
of the wave limits in part the convection to isolated showers S of
15N between 70W and 78W.


The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N14W and then continues along 8N21W to 6N28W
where the ITCZ begins and then extends to 7N44W to 6N57W.
Scattered showers are from 4N-10N E of 24W. Similar shower
activity is from 6N-10N between 37W and 58W.



The remnants of a surface trough continues to generate scattered
showers and isolated tstms within 60 nm off the Mexico eastern
coast from Tampico to Veracruz. In the central Gulf, a surface
trough extends from 28N86W to 24N90W with scattered showers and
tstms from 24N-28N E of 91W. Otherwise, gentle variable winds
cover the basin. Surface ridge will persist through the middle of
the week, except for the SW Gulf where a weak surface heat trough
will be present.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

An upper low centered NE of Puerto Rico extends a trough into the
north-central and portions of the NW Caribbean. To the east, an
upper ridge anchored over the west Tropical Atlantic covers the
south-central and SE Caribbean. A diffluent flow generated by
these two upper features along with shallow moisture support
scattered to isolated showers S of 15N E of 70W and across the
Leeward Islands. Abundant moisture in the SW basin along with a
divergent environment aloft support numerous heavy showers and
scattered tstms S of 15N W of 78W. Otherwise, a tropical wave is
moving across the south-central basin. See waves section above for
details. Fresh to strong trades continue in the central basin
generated by a strong gradient between low pres associated with
the wave in the S-SW Caribbean and high pres to the N-NE. Near-
gale force winds are possible along the coast of Colombia and
adjacent waters. These winds will continue beyond the next two


An upper level low centered NE of Puerto Rico extends a trough SW
across Hispaniola, which along with shallow moisture in the trade
wind flow support isolated showers mainly over the center of the
Island. he upper trough will move east of the area early Monday
giving the island westerly flow aloft. The easterly trade winds
coupled with daytime heating will continue to generate
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms across the island
through the first of the week.


An upper level low and associated trough over the NW Atlc waters
support a cold front that starts to dip in the SW N Atlc waters
along 30N72W to W-SW to 30N81W. Scattered showers and tstms are
within 200 nm ahead of the front. Broad high pressure prevails elsewhere across
the basin being anchored by a 1038 mb high N-NW of the Azores
near 43N31W. The surface ridge will persist through the middle of
the week. The front will continue to sink south into the SW N Atlc
waters later today through Monday night where it will dissipate. A
weak low pressure may develop along the front before it

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