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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 231031

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

Tropical wave extends from 10N53W to 19N50W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with global model indicated 700 mb troughing
between 38W-55W with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along
the wave axis near 12N. No significant deep convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 11N16W to
07N36W to 07N50W. Scattered moderate and widely scattered strong
convection is from 04N-12N between 18W-30W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-17N between 30W-47W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 09W-14W.


A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
with axis extending over the SW North Atlc waters and a broad
base over Cuba and portions of the NW Caribbean Sea waters. The
troughing supports a stationary front analyzed across the Yucatan
Channel from 22N84W to 21N90W to 18N94W. A surface trough extends
NW from the front near 19N93W to 21N97W providing focus for
isolated showers and possible tstms SW of a line from 23N98W to
19N92W. Elsewhere...high pressure remains anchored across the
lower Mississippi River valley focused on a 1023 mb high centered
near 33N91W. The ridge will gradually drift eastward across the
SE CONUS through Sunday night. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are
expected to persist through Sunday gradually veering NE to E
Sunday late into early Monday then mostly E on Monday as the ridge
merges with another ridge anchored across the Great Lakes region.

The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water
vapor imagery over Cuba and the NW Caribbean supporting a cold
front analyzed across western Cuba and becoming stationary across
the Yucatan Channel. To the SE...a pre-frontal surface trough or
low-level convergence zone is noted from 22N69W SW to the Windward
Passage to SW of Jamaica near 16N79W. The cold front lacks any
significant moisture and precipitation...however scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side
of the surface trough boundary. Overall gentle to moderate N-NE
winds prevail across the NW Caribbean S of the weakening front.
Across the SW Caribbean...the Monsoon Trough axis extends along
09N from Costa Rica eastward across central Panama to northern
Colombia. The axis is providing focus for scattered showers and
isolated strong tstms S of 12N. Elsewhere...the eastern and
central Caribbean are under mostly fair skies this morning with
moderate to fresh trades prevailing. These trades are expected to
persist through Monday.

Currently isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring
across the island as a surface trough is analyzed to the NW from
22N69W to the Windward Passage region to across Jamaica. The
boundary is supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough over
the SW North Atlc and portions of the NW Caribbean Sea. Increased
probability of scattered showers and tstms is expected through
Sunday as the troughing lingers across the region.

A middle to upper level trough is noted over the SW North Atlc
supporting a cold front extending from 32N65W near Bermuda SW to
the central Bahamas then to western Cuba. A pre-frontal trough or
low-level convergence zone is noted from near 30N64W to 25N66W to
the Windward Passage region near 20N73W. Isolated showers and
tstms are occurring generally east of the boundary between 60W-
70W. W of the cold front...moderate to occasional fresh N-NW
winds filter in across the SW North Atlc as high pressure anchors
itself across the SE CONUS. Otherwise...the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlc currently is under the influence of
surface ridging anchored by a 1030 mb high centered N of the
discussion area near 38N39W. One exception is a cold front
analyzed from near 32N11W W-SW to 28N26W to 29N35W then
stationary to 32N44W. Possible isolated showers are within 90 nm
either side of the front.

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