789 
AXNT20 KNHC 171732
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat May 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Guinea,
then curves southwestward to 05N20W. An ITCZ continues west-
southwestward from 05N20W across 04N33W to the east coast of
Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection associated with
these features is observed across much of the Atlantic waters between
the Equator and 09N.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia,
generally south of 12N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Moderate to fresh SE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted
across the western and central Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas prevail across the remainder of the Gulf. Smoke from 
agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico is creating hazy 
conditions at the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including 
the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the eastern Gulf and relatively lower pressure in Texas and 
eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh with locally strong
SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through Tue. 
Pulsing fresh to locally strong E winds are likely each afternoon 
and evening through Tue night, north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a
trough develops daily and drifts westward. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will sustain hazy 
conditions at the west-central and southwestern Gulf into early 
next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The southern end of an upper-level trough is causing scattered
moderate convection across the northeastern basin, including 
waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Refer to the 
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the SW 
Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 
seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail across much of the basin, with moderate
or weaker E winds and seas of 2-5 ft occurring in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during late afternoons and nights 
through midweek next week. Moderate to fresh trades along with 
moderate seas over the south-central basin will continue through 
this morning. Similar conditions are expected in the lee of Cuba 
and near the Windward Passage early this morning and tonight. 
Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will persist over the 
Atlantic waters near and east of the Lesser Antilles through Sun 
night. On Sun night, increasing trades along with building seas 
are expected across the eastern basin, which will then shift 
westward across the central and southwestern basin through the 
middle of next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is interacting with a surface trough
analyzed from 27N59W to 19N66W, resulting in the development of
scattered moderate convection from the Leeward Islands
northeastward to about 25N between 59W and 65W. Any other
significant convection in the basin is associated with the monsoon
trough and ITCZ.

A 1027 mb high centered near 32N44W maintains E to NE winds across
much of the basin. Fresh to strong E to NE winds are observed
across areas S of 20N and W of 30W, along with seas of 7-9 ft.
Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are observed E of 30W,
as well as N of 20N between 30W and 60W. Moderate or weaker E to
SE winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic W of 60W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough will move across the NW 
part of the area Sun through Mon, preceded by gentle to moderate S
to SW winds. Meanwhile, broad high pressure extending 
southwestward from the central Atlantic to Florida will support 
gentle winds south of 28N. In the long term, fresh to locally 
strong southwesterly winds and building seas are expected east of 
northeastern Florida and northeast of the Bahamas around the 
middle of next week, in response to a cold front that will move 
off the southeastern United States coast. This front may be 
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Farther south,
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will pulse north of 
Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night into next week.

$$
Adams