Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091033
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 8W MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS 
ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ON 
THE SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY 
OR CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 4N6W 3N11W 5N26W THEN ALONG 1N35W 
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO 3S40W. THE ITCZ W OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE HAS A DOUBLE ITCZ AXIS WITH THE STRONGEST TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. THE WEAKER AXIS IS ALONG 6N36W TO 4N52W. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 
5N10.5W TO 6.5N13W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-31W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO 
S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 11W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE 
ITCZ AXIS N TO 8N BETWEEN 14W-25W AND WITHIN 130/150 NM OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 5.5N 
FROM 35W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERS THE GULF INTO 
THE W ATLC. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OVER 
THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT MOVES E ACROSS THE SE US. THIS FRONT 
WILL NOT ENTER THE GULF WATERS AND THEREFORE NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. 
HOWEVER...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF 
ON SUN. SOME SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE N AND W 
GULF BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE THE 
SKIES REMAIN RATHER CLEAR OVER THE GULF AGAIN THIS MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 75W WHILE A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
THAT COVERS THE W TROPICAL ATLC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE S AND 
E CARIBBEAN. FAIRLY STRONG E TRADE WINDS COVER MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
THESE TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
S OF 11N FROM OVER COLOMBIA TO OVER COSTA RICA. MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN 
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO THAT AREA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 36W-78W 
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 75W TO THE BAHAMA 
ISLANDS THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 
27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS WELL TO THE E 
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING SW TO 25N55W BECOMING 
STATIONARY TO 25N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE 
FROM 28N44W TO BEYOND 32N38W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE 
E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S OVER THE FAR E 
ATLC TO 20N E OF 27W. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A 
WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY 
A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N60W AND A 1024 MB 
HIGH IN THE NE ATLC NEAR 34N27W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGES SHOWS THE AFRICAN DUST DISSIPATING ACROSS THE TROPICAL 
ATLC. 

$$
WALLACE