000
AXNT20 KNHC 270559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean: 
The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are
described below, and abundant tropical moisture over the same area
will continue to enhance the chances for heavy rain and strong
thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and across portions of
Central America through at least Friday. This will increase the 
potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly 
terrain. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest 
rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua 
and in northern Honduras. Please refer to the local Weather 
Services in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 15N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is seen 
near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 17N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 11N to 13N between 47W and 51W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 16N southward
across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms are evident near the coast southeastern Nicaragua
and northeastern Honduras.

Another tropical wave is near 89W from the northern Yucatan
Peninsula southward across Guatemala and El Salvador into the 
East Pacific. It is moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered heavy 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at the Gulf of 
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters into the Atlantic along the coastal border
of Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward to 09N31W. An 
ITCZ extends westward from 08N35W to 08N38W, and from 08N51W to
the northern coast of Guyana near Georgetown. Widely scattered
moderate convection is found near and up to 120 nm north of the 
first ITCZ segment between 43W and 46W, and the entire second 
ITCZ segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near Panama and 
northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Two surface troughs are generating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the northeastern Gulf, and off Tampico,
Mexico. Otherwise, modest ridging is dominating the eastern Gulf 
with light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms related to two 
tropical waves over the Yucatan Peninsula and in the far 
northwestern Caribbean are forecast to shift west-northwestward 
into the Bay of Campeche Sat or Sat night. The northern portion of
the wave could induce a low pressure to form in the Bay of 
Campeche. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds 
will pulse each evening and night north of the Yucatan Peninsula 
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to a locally tighter 
pressure gradient induced by a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential 
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and
Central America.

Convergent trade winds are creating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the lee of western Cuba and near the
Cayman Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea.
Tight gradient between the Bermuda High near 28N66W and lower 
pressure at northern Colombia are sustaining strong to locally 
near-gale easterly winds and 9 to 11 ft seas at the south-central 
basin. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are
noted at the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4
ft seas in moderate NE swell are seen near Costa Rica and Panama.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail 
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the two tropical waves mentioned in the 
Tropical Waves sections will sustain scattered deep convection 
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall over the far western 
basin and adjacent portions of Central America into the weekend. 
Also, fresh to strong trades across the central basin will last 
into early next week. In particular, winds will pulse to near-gale
force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with moderate to
rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds over the Gulf of 
Honduras will continue through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low near 27N61W is triggering widely scattered
moderate convection north of 26N between 58W and 65W. Refer to 
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the 
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 
subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb Azores High
across 31N40W to a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 28N66W. These 
features are supporting light to gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas 
north of 25N between 35W and the coast of northeastern Florida and
southern Georgia. For the Atlantic waters from 09N to 25N between
35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally fresh 
NE to E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate 
E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in moderate mixed swells 
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Bermuda High and
associated ridge will prevail across the region into the middle 
of next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas 
will prevail south of 25N. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse 
from late afternoons into the overnights north of Hispaniola 
through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$

Chan