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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011050
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 23N92W TO 14N91W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N92W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE 
WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN 
MEXICO INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS 
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION DEVELOPS FROM IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARM GULF 
WATERS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE 
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO 
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS JUST W OF THE 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 17N25W TO 07N26W...MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS AND ITS SOUTHERN END IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N 
BETWEEN 24W-27W. ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-
12N BETWEEN 23W-25W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
19N44W TO 11N44W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE 
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-12N...BETWEEN 43W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES 
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO 10N57W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 
KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE 
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ALONG 11N...BETWEEN 54W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO 
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 11N66W MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. 
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS 
DEPICTED ON TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER 
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 
07N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 12N43W TO 11N50W TO 
11N56W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION...PLEASE SEE THE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS  
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL 
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A MID-
TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED 
TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING THIS WAVE. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS 
ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WHICH IS FUELING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS MAINLY S OF 
23N. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE...SEE THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS 
THE NW GULF...WITH CENTER NEAR 28N94W.  WITH THIS...UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS AS THE WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE CONTINUES MOVING W. WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 80W. SEE THE 
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 66W DISCUSSED ABOVE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG 
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AT 
23N73W ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN 
HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 10-15 KT 
DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W 
AND THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 15W BETWEEN 67W-80W WHERE 15-20 KT 
WINDS PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO 
RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY 
ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE 
ENTERS THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS 
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FAIRLY HUMID. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH 
DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF 
PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY 
BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED NEAR THE 
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 27N 
BETWEEN 63W-77W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Monday, 01-Sep-2014 10:50:16 UTC