000
AXNT20 KNHC 010836
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jun 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W, south 
of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 10N and between 20W and 30W. 

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is located near 83W, south 
of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate 
convection is noted where the wave intersects the monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 15N17W and extends SW to near 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from
07N25W to 04N51W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical
waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to
08N between 36W and 50W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1014 mb high is centered in the NW Gulf near 29N93W. A trough is
over the Yucatan peninsula. The pressure gradient between the area
of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting gentle to
moderate winds N and W of the Yucatan peninsula. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. Some 
reductions in visibility may be possible over the NW Gulf due to 
agricultural fires.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each 
afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the 
eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves 
westward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas 
are expected across most of the Gulf through early this week. 
Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas across the 
western and south- central Gulf Tue into Thu between a trough over
northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak ridging is north of the Caribbean. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W. W of
80W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-7 ft
range E of 80W, and 2-4 ft W of 80W. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough 
seas will expand across most of the Caribbean through the middle 
of next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N74W to 28N77W. Moderate 
convection is within 60 nm E of the trough. Moderate to fresh 
winds and seas of 6-8 ft are also over these waters. Elsewhere W 
of 60W, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. A 
weal 1022 mb low is centered near 31N46W. High pressure dominates 
the remainder of the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N. 
Moderate winds are noted N of 20N and E of 35W, where seas are in 
the 3-5 ft range. Light winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, are elsewhere N
of 20N. S of 20N, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft 
prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas over the waters between 
Florida and Bermuda will subside today. A weak front will move off
the southeast U.S. coast Mon and reach from Bermuda to east- 
central Florida by late Tue, then dissipate as it moves eastward 
through mid week. High pressure will build in the wake of the 
front with fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola
late Wed and Thu. 

$$
AL