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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190005
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NE GULF IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 29N85W AT 2100 
UTC. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE...MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN WILL CONTINUE NE TO 
EXIT THE GEORGIA COAST SAT AFTERNOON. GALE WINDS AT THE GULF ARE 
EXPECTED SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 09N19W TO 04N21W. THE ITCZ 
BEGINS NEAR 04N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W 01S40W TO THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 02N BETWEEN 07W-12W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 18W-
24W...05S-01N BETWEEN 26W-30W AND FROM 02S-03N W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE 
EASTERN CONUS WITH A BASE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTS A 
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW S OF PANAMA CITY 
NEAR 29N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N85W 
22N88W TO 21N91W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH TO 
18N94W. A PARTIAL STATIONARY FRONT DEPARTS FROM THE LOW NE 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN INTO GEORGIA WHERE 
IT TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT. THERE ARE GALE FORCE WINDS AT 
THE W-NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW CENTER WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO 
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE 
TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER RIDGE NOW ACROSS THE 
WESTERN ATLC THUS INDUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO SUPPORT SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 86W...INCLUDING THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NE...MOVING INLAND 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN WILL 
CONTINUE NE TO EXIT THE GEORGIA COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...A RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND 
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. THIS PATTERN 
ALOFT IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY ACROSS THE BASIN. A BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND SW N ATLC EXTENDS INTO 
THE NORTHERN BASIN CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO 
SUPPORT WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. A 
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORT 
LIGHTER WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT. THE MOIST AIRMASS FORMERLY 
GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAS MOVED INTO HISPANIOLA 
AND NOW SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE. CURRENTLY SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOW THESE SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS 
ALONG CUBA BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE 
HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES 
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS THEN WEAKENING SUN AS LOW 
PRES MOVES N OF AREA AND THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT 
EXITING THE GULF SAT MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS PREVIOUSLY GENERATING SHOWERS ACROSS 
PUERTO RICO HAS MOVED INTO HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS TO 
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED OVER CENTRAL-
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF 
THE GULF WATERS ON SAT MORNING WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE 
REGION THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN SUN INTO MONDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 34N54W 
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SW N ATLC BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD 
RIDGE ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE 
SW N ATLC N OF 25N W OF 76W ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM 
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A ZONE OF 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE FRONT AND 
THE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE 
OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N26W TO 
25N32W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FARTHER EAST...A 
WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR 29N17W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE 
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Saturday, 19-Apr-2014 00:05:34 UTC