083 
AXNT20 KNHC 271809
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean: 
The interaction between a tropical wave that is described below
and abundant tropical moisture will continue to enhance heavy rain
across portions of Central America into tonight. This will
increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
especially in hilly terrain. According to the latest model
guidance, the heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the
northeast coast of Nicaragua and in northern Honduras.
Additionally, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days due to the recent formation of a broad area of low pressure
that is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the local 
Weather Services in the region for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa per
the latest satellite imagery animation, further supported by the 
SUNY-Albany Trough Diagnostics 700 mb potential vorticity
guidance. It annalist along 18W from 05N to 19N, and is moving 
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm 
west of the wave from 09N to 12N. A dry and very stable
environment surrounds the wave north of 12N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 36W from 04N
to 16N, moving westward at about 10 kt. This wave is also 
not accompanied by significant convection.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
20N55W to 12N54W to inland French Guiana. It is moving westward 
at 15-20 kt. satellite imagery shows that scattered moderate 
convection has increased within 120 nm either side of the wave 
axis from 10N to 12N. Similar convection is east of the wave 
axis within 30 nm either side of line from 13N53W to 12N49W to 
10N43W. A recent scatterometer satellite data pass captured a 
subtle northeast to southeast wind shift across the wave axis. 
The winds are of moderate to fresh speeds north of 13N and of 
gentle to moderate speeds south of 13N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has recently moved inland
Central America with is axis along 84W, reaching well into the 
eastern Pacific near 05N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. This 
wave is one of the players of the Special Features significant 
rainfall event. Numerous strong convection is present from 15N to 
20N between 82W and 86W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are 
just east of the wave axis from 12N to 14N.

The wave that was previously along 90W has been absorbed into
a broad area of low pressure that is in the eastern Pacific Ocean
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with Invest-EP95. 
cyclonic

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters into the Atlantic through the 
coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues southwestward to
19N20W and west-southwestward to 07N28W, where it transitions 
to the ITCZ and continues to 07N35W. It resumes west of a 
tropical wave near 08N38W to 09N53W. Another segment extends 
from 08N54W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
120 nm north of the trough between 22W-28W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection S of 10N near the coast of Panama
and Colombia. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The western extension of rather modest Atlantic high pressure 
extends westward across the northern Gulf. The present gradient
is allowing for generally light to gentle east to southeast winds 
north of 24N, and gentle to moderate east winds south of 24N 
except for light to variable winds south of 23N west of 95W.
Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range, except for 2 ft or less in the 
NE Gulf.

satellite imagery shows an area of disorganized scattered 
moderate convection over the SW Gulf south of 21N between 94W and 
96W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf 
north of 26N between 83W and 87W due to a weak surface trough 
that extends from near 30N84W to 26N86W and a mid to upper-level 
low seen over the general area of northern Florida.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure has formed over 
the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. Some additional 
development is possible over the next few days when the system 
moves into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. By early next week 
this system should move inland over Mexico, ending its chances of 
additional development. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate 
the Gulf waters through early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential 
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and
Central America.

A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean due 
to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is sustaining fresh 
to strong trades over most of the central Caribbean, except strong 
to near gale-force trades south of 13N between 74W and 76W. Recent
scatterometer satellite data passes captures these winds. Seas 
with these winds are in the 8 to 12 ft range. The scatterometer
satellite data passes also indicate fresh to strong trades over 
the north-central sections of the basin between 72W and 85W. Seas 
with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in east swell. Moderate to fresh 
trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the tropical wave in the western Caribbean will
contribute to scattered convection along with locally heavy 
rainfall across the far western basin through Sat. The pressure 
gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean associated with the eastern Pacific 
monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of 
the central and southwestern Caribbean through early next week. 
Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf 
of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf
of Honduras will continue through the weekend

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high center is analyzed at 28N68W while stronger high
pressure of 1029 mb is north of the area near 34N29W. High
pressure covers the area north of 19N. Moderate to fresh trades 
are south of 23N, with the exception of fresh to strong speeds
along the coast of Hispaniola extending north to 21N per latest 
scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with 
these winds. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 23N 
west of 64W, and light to gentle southeast to south winds are 
north of 23N between 46W and 64W. Gentle to moderate northeast 
winds are east of 46W, except for fresh to strong northeast winds 
in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of
23N, except for higher seas of 5 to 8 ft in the vicinity of the 
Canary Islands.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore and 
along the Florida north of 26N. This activity reaches eastward
to near 77W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will remain over 
the region into the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh east
to southeast winds and moderate seas will continue south of 25N. 
Fresh to strong east winds will pulse from late afternoons into 
the overnights north of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.

$$
Aguirre