851 
AXNT20 KNHC 181008
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jun 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1005 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 14N, 
moving westward at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted
near the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 13N, 
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 04N to 10N and between 35W and 45W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 
15N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 13N and between 55W and 63W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 08N27W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 06N40W and then from 06N45W to 07N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 10N and east of 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Plenty of tropical moisture and favorable atmospheric conditions
continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the western Bay of Campeche, also affecting the coast of
Veracruz. Meanwhile, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted in the eastern Gulf waters. An extensive subtropical ridge
extends into the Gulf of America, forcing moderate to fresh E-SE
winds over much of the western Gulf waters and off northern 
Yucatan. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft (1-2 m). Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will 
pulse each afternoon and evening through the next several days 
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche 
as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the 
region. Otherwise, surface ridging extending across most of the 
basin from the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S 
to SE winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf 
through Sat night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight 
seas are forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over
much of the Caribbean Sea west of 80W in part associated with the
outflow of Tropical Storm Erick in the eastern Pacific. Heavy
rainfall is also impacting Central America. A few showers are also
evident in the eastern Caribbean. 

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic continues to 
support strong to near gale- force easterly trade winds over the 
central Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft (2.5-3.5 
m). Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft (2-2.5 m) 
are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh 
easterly breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the eastern 
Caribbean. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, an extensive subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic extends into the Caribbean Sea forcing fresh to near 
gale force easterly winds and rough seas to 12 ft through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the Gulf 
of Honduras through Thu as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas 
are possible in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW 
Caribbean through Thu night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for information regarding 
tropical waves moving across the Atlantic.

The expansive subtropical ridge continues to dominate the entire
tropical Atlantic basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds and
locally rough seas are noted off northern Hispaniola and at the
entrance of the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
and seas of 5-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m) are occurring south of 25N and west
of 40W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found east of the
Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and moderate to locally rough seas are forecast south of 
24N through the forecast period as am extensive subtropical ridge 
prevails. Locally strong winds will pulse just north of Hispaniola
at night into late week as the Bermuda High builds. Moderate to 
fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE Florida through 
Thu associated with a surface trough extending along the eastern 
United States. 

$$
Delgado