000
AXNT20 KNHC 202247
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jun 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W, moving westward
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 
10N between 23W and 30W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical is near 44W from 15N southward, 
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
found from 06N to 10N between 42W and 45W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 16N southward, 
and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the southern half of the wave.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W, moving 
westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
inland along the southern half of the wave over Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along 17N16W to 07N27W. The 
ITCZ continues westward from 07N27W to 09N42W, then from 09N45W 
to 08N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 200
nm N of the ITCZ between 30W-40W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Enhanced by a surface trough near the west coast of Florida, an
upper-level trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the east-central Gulf. Convergent SE winds are
coupling with deep tropical moisture to produce similar 
conditions at the west-central Gulf near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate
to fresh SE winds and moderate seas are evident at the 
southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. A 1021 mb high 
near 29N89W is supporting gentle winds and slight seas at the 
north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE 
winds with slight seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, deep tropical moisture will advect north- 
northwestward across the western Gulf through Sat, supporting 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The stronger 
thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds and locally higher
seas. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each afternoon and
evening during the next several days north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough 
develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh 
east to southeast winds along with moderate seas are expected over
the central and western Gulf through the weekend before 
diminishing early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about convection
in the basin.

A 1022 mb Bermuda High near 27N66W continues to sustain a robust 
trade-wind regime across much of the basin. Fresh to strong ENE to
E winds and rough seas are evident at the south-central basin. 
Gentle to moderate E winds with moderate seas are noted at the 
northwestern basin, north of 18N. Light to gentle winds and slight
seas persist near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh NE to 
E winds with moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean 
Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to 
strong trades over the central part of the basin through early 
next week. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia at 
night through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate
seas will prevail.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about convection
in the basin.

A couple of surface troughs originated from the north-central 
Atlantic are generating scattered moderate convection in two 
places north of 28N, between 40W and 63W. To the east, a weakening 
cold front curves southwestward from 31N17W to 27N28W.

The Atlantic subtropical ridge stretches westward from a 1025 mb
high near 27N35W to a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 27N66W. These 
features are supporting mostly gentle NE to SE winds with moderate 
seas north of 23N between 30W and the Florida/southern Georgia 
coast. To the south from 08N to 23N between the Cabo Verde Islands
and Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NNE to ESE winds 
and moderate to rough seas dominate. Near the Canary Islands, 
moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and rough seas
are found between 20N-25N and E of 22W. For the remainder of the 
Atlantic Basin west of 10W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak front or trough will pass to
the southeast of Bermuda this weekend. Otherwise, high pressure 
will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to 
locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few 
days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. 

$$
ERA