AXNT20 KNHC 281008
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
608 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical wave extends from 06N35W to 15N41W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 35W-46W
and remains embedded within Saharan dust. As a result...no
significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
Tropical wave extends from 05N56W to 13N54W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 53W-59W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-12N between 54W-60W.
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
06N36W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N36W to 07N56W to 08N59W. Isolated moderate convection is from
04N-07N between 13W-24W...and from 10N-13N between 18W-21W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 26W-
42W...and from 02N-05N between 43W-51W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Primarily easterly flow aloft prevails between an inverted upper
level trough over the SW Gulf waters and an upper level ridge axis
extending along 30N over the SE CONUS. Upper level diffluence
associated with the ridging and weak mid-level shortwave energy
noted on water vapor imagery over the north-central Gulf is
supporting a 1015 mb low centered across SE Louisiana generating
scattered showers and tstms N of 27N between 88W-94W...including
inland portions of the lower Mississippi River valley.
Otherwise...the remainder of the basin remains relatively
tranquil due to a weak ridge axis extending across the basin along
26N/27N. Generally gentle to occasional moderate anticyclonic
winds are expected through Wednesday as the ridge axis remains
nearly stationary. This overall synoptic pattern is anticipated
through the remainder of the week.
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean
near 14N83W. This feature along with a tropical wave currently
across far western El Salvador and southern Guatemala is providing
focus for scattered showers and tstms generally S of 17N W of 85W.
Other scattered showers and tstms are to the east occurring along
the coast S of 14N between 81W-85W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a very broad troughing aloft with
axis along 73W. Mostly dry air is associated with the troughing W
of 73W...however a few isolated showers are occurring in the
adjacent coastal waters off of Cuba this morning. E of 73W...
scattered middle to upper level cloudiness and possible isolated
showers are evident on satellite imagery due to moist
southwesterly flow aloft. While moderate to fresh trades prevail
across much of the basin...fresh to strong trades persist S of 16N
between 68W-80W due to a strengthened pressure gradient across the
south-central Caribbean region. Little change is expected during
the next 24 to 36 hours.
Currently...mostly fair conditions prevail as earlier isolated
showers and tstms have dissipated. Southwesterly flow aloft is
noted on water vapor imagery this morning...and this environment
along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote
isolated showers and tstms Tuesday late afternoon into the early
A 1014 mb surface low is centered across the SW North Atlc
centered E of the Georgia coast near 31N79W. Farther northeast...a
middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery near 35N68W that is supporting scattered showers and
isolated tstms N of 28N between 62W-73W. The remainder of the
basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high
centered NW of the Azores near 41N35W.
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