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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262338
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

A GALE WARNING WILL RESUME AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY OFF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THIS WARNING IS IN 
EFFECT THROUGH 1200 UTC ON FRIDAY AND EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY 
0600 UTC ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN 
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER 
THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE 
FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO 00S35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-00N BETWEEN 36W-43W 
AND FROM 02S-01N BETWEEN 22W-26W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N69W 
EXTENDS IS COLD FRONT W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO 
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF FROM 26N82W TO 22N88W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N88W 
TO 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM S OF 
THE FRONT FROM 25N AFFECTING THE WATERS S OF 25N. A GENTLE NE 
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A SLIGHT NW 
FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS 
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE 
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS S FL AND NW CUBA BEFORE 
STALLING. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT 
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A STABLE AIRMASS 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER...WITH ONLY 
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS THE LESSER 
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA 
DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 78W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW 
PREVAILS W OF 78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN 
TONIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA. FOR MORE 
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION 
ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN AND STALL OVER NW CUBA ENHANCING 
CONVECTION. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS 
THE ISLAND...WITH ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED. EXPECT 
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
37N69W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N76W TO 
27N80W THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF 
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE 
FRONT N OF 27N. TO THE E...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB 
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PREVAILS SUPPORTING FAIR 
WEATHER AND AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL 
EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CANARY 
ISLANDS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO 
CONTINUE MOVING REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
ERA



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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Feb-2015 23:38:51 UTC