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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011758
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 13.4N 73.4W at 01/1500 UTC or
about 317 nm SSW of Port Au Prince Haiti and about 339 nm SE of
Kingston Jamaica moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with
gusts to 150 kt. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Numerous strong convection is from
11N-16N between 69W-75W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 09N-17N between 68W-76W. Rainfall totals of 10 to
15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are
expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern Haiti over
the next three to four days. This rainfall could produce life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from a 1011
mb low near 13N36W to 20N35W, moving W at 15-20 kt over the past
24 hours. The wave is in a moist region as depicted in the total
precipitable water imagery,however, Saharan dry air and dust is
just west of the wave environment. Scattered showers are within
60 nm of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from a 1011
mb low near 16N52W to 23N54W, moving WNW at 10-15 kt over the
past 24 hours. Again, Saharan dry air and dust is west of the
wave environment. Scattered moderate convection is east of the
wave axis from 15N-23N between 48W-52W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 12N15W to 09N20W to 11N32W to
09N37W. The ITCZ begins near 09N37W and continues to 07N40W to
08N45W. Scattered moderate convection is N of the monsoon trough 
from 11N-14N between 22W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A quasi-stationary front extends from Central Florida near Cocoa
Beach to Tampa and continues to the Central Gulf of Mexico near
25N90W to the SW Gulf near Tampico Mexico. Isolated moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the front. 10-15 kt northerly
winds are N of the front, while 5-10 kt southerly winds are S of
the front. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over
the Gulf with axis along 85W. Expect the front to gradually
become diffuse Sunday with light E-NE surface winds to follow
due to ridging. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin is Hurricane Matthew located in the
south-central Caribbean. See the special features section for
details. Scattered showers are off the coast of Nicaragua, and
over the Gulf of Honduras. More showers are noted on radar both
north and south of Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the
easterlies. In the upper levels, westerlies prevail over the
Caribbean except over Matthew. Expect Matthew to follow a
mostly northerly track over the next three to four days.   

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection together with high surf is along
the southern coast of Hispaniola due to Hurricane Matthew.
Expect Matthew to move closer to Haiti over the next several
days.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary front extends over the Western Atlantic from
31N79W to Central Florida near Cocoa Beach. Isolated moderate
convection is from 25N to beyond 31N between 74W-80W. A 1022 mb
high is over the Central Atlantic near 30N39W moving ESE.
Expect the tropical waves to move W over the next several days.  

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA