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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281120
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AN AREA N OF 28N AND E OF FRONT 
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N80W TO 66W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 02N33W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 16W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER W 
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF 
COLD FRONTS THAT ARE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
25N95W. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE BASIN. A SLIGHT 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE 
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA E OF 90W. OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER 
THE W GULF TO DRIFT E BEFORE DISSIPATING. A HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE SE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN AFTER THAT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO HAITI. A SHEAR 
LINE EXTENDS S FROM THE FRONT THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN FROM 19N74W 
TO 10N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHEARLINE 
AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS W OF HAITI...E OF JAMAICA AND N OF 
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
ATLANTIC ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WATERS FROM 18N69W TO 15N72W WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
CONVECTION AFFECTING LA MONA PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A 
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER 
COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND 
S CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR 
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE SHEAR LINE WHICH 
KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. SLIGHT TO GENTLE 
TRADES PREVAIL E OF THE SHEAR LINE WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE 
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF THE SHEARLINE. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER HAITI TO WEAKEN. FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA 
RICA. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF 
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER HAITI AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER E 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES  
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AS THE FRONT 
AND TROUGH MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND STALL. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC AND THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF 
COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
NEAR 26N80W TO 32N69W. THE SECOND FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N73W TO 
32N61W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS IN 
THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FRONTS THEREFORE A GALE WARNING IS IN 
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE E OF THE FRONTS...A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 19N69W TO 24N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
N OF 21N BETWEEN 56W-68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS 
DOMINATED BY A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N30W. THE 
REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 24N36W TO 28N36W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO HAITI TO 
MERGE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND STALL. THE COLD FRONT 
BEHIND THIS ONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING E MERGING WITH THE STALLED 
FRONT IN 48 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Jan-2015 11:20:17 UTC