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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 061759
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...                                      
GALE-FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE 
DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS OF 
20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
FROM 10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST 
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 52W/53W 
FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. 

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 63W FROM 
VENEZUELA TO 17N MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF HIGH MOISTURE 
WITH THIS WAVE S OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 
13N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. 

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER 
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 9N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 8N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST 
AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 
31W TO 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N87W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY 
OF THE GULF WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER 
THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF 
WHICH SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO THE 
FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE 
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 
81W AND 88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N96W OVER 
THE SW GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM N AND WEST 
OF THE TROUGH N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS N FL AND 
INLAND OF THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED 
INLAND ACROSS MS/AL. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NE GULF 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MS/AL HIGH. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 5 TO 
15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
BROAD RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE 
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN 
AND SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N W OF 
83W. ELSEWHERE...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 12N IS 
COVERED IN DRY AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST PRESENT. THIS IS INHIBITING 
ANY DEEP CONVECTION N OF 12 N ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE 
IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER 
PORTIONS OF PANAMA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA 
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WINDS DECREASING 
BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. 
EXPECT CONVECTION TO SPREAD W TO 70W S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE ISLAND...ROUNDING THE 
BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A 
THIN BAND OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS 
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL 
WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE ISLAND ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED 
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT COVERAGE 
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR ON TUESDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N79W AND IS 
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 26N71W AND SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N 
BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 21N56W TO 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
100NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 28N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING 
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL 
NORTHERN ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING 
SAHARAN DUST PLUMES ADVECTING WEST ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN. ONE 
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL 
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO


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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Jul-2015 17:59:55 UTC