000
AXNT20 KNHC 061013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon May 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 05N18W. 
The ITCZ extends eastward from 05N18W to 02N34W and to 02N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N along both
of these features.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic extends 
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE-E winds are 
occurring off Yucatan and the NW Gulf, while moderate to locally 
fresh easterly winds are found in the rest of the western half of 
the Gulf and the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail 
in the rest of the basin.

Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident 
in the SW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the
southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in mainly fresh SE 
winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night. Locally strong 
winds will pulse nightly Tue through late week off the northern 
and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural fires in 
southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent upper level trough continues to enhance the
development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially in
the afternoon and evening hours, across the Greater Antilles and
surrounding waters. The trough will gradually weaken and move 
farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric conditions will 
remain favorable for convection capable of producing gusty winds 
and frequent lightning early this week. Locally heavy rainfall 
continues to bring a threat of flooding in the islands. See local
weather advisories for more information. 

high pressure centered over the western Atlantic is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the central and 
eastern portions of the basin, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. 
Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the overall weather pattern will prevail into 
mid-week. Late this week, SE winds will increase to fresh in the 
Gulf of Honduras and adjacent NW Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high pressure centered between Cape Hatteras and 
Bermuda dominates the SW North Atlantic west of 55W. Moderate to 
locally fresh easterly winds are noted south of 27N and west of 
60W. Seas in the area described are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

Farther west, a cold front extends from 31N34W to 21N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is along and just ahead of the front.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are evident ahead of the front 
to 28W and north of 25N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Behind 
the front to 55W and north of 26N, moderate to fresh westerly 
winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail. 

The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by
a weak high pressure centered near Madeira. Moderate to locally 
fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found south of 15N and
west of 30W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures in NW Africa support fresh northerly winds north of 22N
and east of 21W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore
southern Morocco. Seas are 4-7 ft in these waters. Elsewhere in 
the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building N of the area
will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N through 
mid week. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with a gale center 
well north of the region over the north central Atlantic will move
through the waters north of 27N and east of 60W tonight into Tue 
night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off 
northeast Florida starting Wed as the high pressure shifts 
southeast ahead of a cold front moving off the Carolinas. 

$$
Konarik