636 
AXNT20 KNHC 221028
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu May 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 33W, to the south of 12N, 
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 02.5N to 06.5N between 31W and 38W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 14.5N17W
and extends southwestward to near 05.5N30W. The ITCZ extends from
05N36W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Aside from the 
convection associated with the tropical wave, clusters of 
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection covers the 
waters from 02.5N to 08N between 11W and 27W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted from 02N to 07N between 40W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A front has become stationary from northern Florida near Jacksonville,
across the Florida Big Bend to coastal Louisiana and into Texas 
along the state border. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 90 nm south of the front to the west of 85W, while 
scattered moderate convection continues to fire off inland of the 
coast across southeast Texas and northeastern Mexico, and spread 
eastward to the coastal waters. This activity is being supported 
by an upper trough moving eastward across northern Mexico. 
Elsewhere the afternoon and evening thermal trough that typically 
develops across the western Yucatan has shifted into the Bay of 
Campeche to along 91W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are 
observed west of 88W, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of 
Campeche. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 3 to
5 ft west of 88W and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere across the basin. Smoke 
intensity from agricultural fires over Mexico continue to be 
medium over the western Gulf, while light smoke density prevails 
across the rest of the basin W of 87W.

For the forecast, the stationary front over the northern Gulf 
coastal waters will sink southward across the NE Gulf today, then 
stall and dissipate tonight. High pressure will develop across the
NE Gulf in the wake of this front and dominate the basin through 
Sun, before Atlantic high pressure builds westward into the Gulf 
Sun night and Mon and strengthens the ridge. Gentle to moderate 
winds will freshen in the western Gulf starting Fri night. E winds
will pulse fresh to locally strong along and just north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as
a trough develops daily and drifts westward at night. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is expected to maintain
hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf 
through the period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered N of Puerto Rico near 
25N, and extends a weak ridge westward through the central 
Bahamas to 80W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure 
and the Colombia Low is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds 
across the Caribbean E of 80W, with locally strong winds near the
coast of Colombia. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong 
winds prevail across the Gulf of Honduras S of 18N where seas are
4 to 7 ft. Light to gentle E to SE winds are observed across the 
NW Caribbean where seas are 1 to 3 ft. Moderate winds generally
prevail elsewhere through the Windward Passage, and across the
eastern waters, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. The East Pacific 
monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean, and is
focusing scattered moderate to strong convection from the central
coast of Nicaragua to NW Colombia. Scattered showers continue 
across southeast portions. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will shift NE
today, and then become reinforced Fri through the weekend as
strong high pressure across the NE Atlantic gradually builds 
westward along 26N-27N and into the Bahamas, which will 
strengthen the ridge. Moderate to fresh winds in the central 
Caribbean will strengthen to fresh to strong S of 15N today, begin
to expand tonight through Fri, then persist through the upcoming 
weekend, gradually expanding westward to Nicaragua. Winds will 
pulse to fresh to strong across the Gulf of Honduras each evening 
and night through the period. Moderate trades in the eastern 
Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic will freshen Thu night into the 
weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb high center is located near 25N67W and extends a weak
ridge W to E between 80W and 58W. A cold front enters the 
discussion waters near 31N49W and extends southwestward to 
26N57W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic prevail across the western
W of the cold front, with moderate to fresh SW to W winds across 
the northwest zones between Florida and 65W. To the east of the 
cold front, a 1030 mb high is just north of the Azores, and 
extends a ridge SW to the cold front. The pressure gradient 
between this high pressure and the cold front supports an area of 
moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 27N between the front and 
42W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft within these winds. Fresh to locally 
strong N to NE winds and rough seas prevail from 15N to 31N E of 
30W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trade
winds prevail elsewhere south of the ridge between the Lesser 
Antilles 30W, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. 

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL)tracking product from CIMSS indicates 
another outbreak of SAL and African dust over the eastern 
Atlantic, mainly E of 32W, and behind the tropical wave. Saharan 
Air Layer activity usually ramps up in mid-June, peaks from late 
June to mid-August and begins to rapidly diminish after mid- 
August.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front entering the regional
waters along near 50W will lift NE and out of the region this
evening. This will allow the Azores high to begin to gradually
build westward into the regional waters along 26N-27N, Fri through
the weekend, and reinforce the current ridge. The resultant 
pressure gradient south of the strengthened ridge will support 
fresh winds S of 23N. A series of weak frontal troughs will sweep 
eastward across the waters N of 28N through the period.

$$
Stripling