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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201805
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/1800 UTC, major Hurricane Maria is located near 18.4N 66.9W
or about 13 nm W of Arecibo, Puerto Rico. The present movement of
Maria is northwest at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central 
pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts
to 120 kt, Category 3. Numerous strong convection is within 120 
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. Maria is moving across 
Puerto Rico today, and will pass just north of the northeast coast
of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Please see the 
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 20/1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 121 nm SSE 
of Nantucket Massachusetts near 39.2N 69.3W, moving northeast at 7
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum 
sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection lays on the NW quadrant of the storm from 38N-42N 
between 70W-73W. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force 
winds extend outward up to 178 nm from the center. Please see the 
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING...

A 1007 mb low in the central Atlc, the remnants of former 
tropical cyclone Lee, is located near 18N46W. Scattered moderate 
convection is over the NE quadrant from 17N-25N between 42W-45W 
Gale-force winds ore over the NE quadrant of the low...within 270
nm of the center. An increase in the organization of the deep 
convection would result in the regeneration of Lee as it moves 
northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. There is a medium 
chance for tropical cyclone re-development within the next 48 
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from 
21N34W to 06N33W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of 
moderate low to middle level moisture N of 13N, and abundant
moisture S of 13N, as shown by SSMI TPW imagery. A well defined
surface reflection is also noted. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-13N between 28W-40W. 

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from 
20N85W to 07N88W, moving west at 20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery 
indicates the presence of some dry air intrusion in the wave 
environment. That along with strong subsidence aloft, and strong 
vertical wind shear, produces a lack of convection over the NW 
Caribbean.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 
12N28W to 08N40W to 10N45W to 09N49W. The ITCZ extends from 
09N49W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the 
tropical wave, isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N 
between 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N87W.
10-15 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf. Lightning
detection imagery indicates thunderstorms over the NW Gulf, SE
Texas, and SW Louisiana. The northern extent of a tropical wave is
over the the Bay of Campeche, S of 20N95W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of this wave. the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has
mostly fair weather. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered over the W Gulf near 22N95W. Expect little change over
the next 24 hours. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eye of category 4 Hurricane Maria has recently moved off the 
NW coast of Puerto Rico. Maria is forecast to pass just north of 
the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and 
Thursday. See the special features section for further details. 
The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa
Rica and Panama. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Scatterometer data shows mainly 
light to gentle trade winds west of 75W. Of note in the upper
levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with
axis from central Cuba near 22N89W to central Honduras near
14N87W. Some scattered showers are Just E of the trough axis due
to upper level diffluence.  

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning is in effect for the NE Dominican Republic. A
tropical storm warning is in effect for the N coast of Haiti. A 
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves 
will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide 
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, 
and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican 
Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E 
Hispaniola E of 70W, spreading W, due to Maria. Expect the entire 
island to be under feeder bands over the the next 24 hours. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on 
Hurricanes Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. There is a gale warning
associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Lee along
with scattered moderate convection. See above. A surface trough 
over the central Atlantic extends from 31N44W to 25N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 120 nm east of the trough 
north of 25N. The remainder of the basin remains under the 
influence of a broad surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa