000
AXNT20 KNHC 082327 AAC
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The majority of the monsoon trough remains inland over Africa, 
and extends briefly southwestward off the west coast of Africa 
to near 12N20W. The ITCZ then begins near 08N20W and continues to
04N23W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate  
isolated strong convection is seen S of 06N between 22W and 46W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward across
central Florida and to the north-central Gulf. This is producing 
light to gentle SE winds in the eastern Gulf and moderate to 
fresh SE to S winds over most of the western Gulf. Seas are 2 to 
4 ft E of 88W, and 4 to 6 farther west. No significant convection 
is occurring in the basin, but haze due to agricultural fires in 
SE Mexico continues to restrict visibility across large portions 
of the western Gulf. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will prevail across 
much of the Gulf through Thu ahead of a cold front. The cold front
will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Thu night, 
and then across most of the basin through Fri. The front will 
slow down and weaken further as it reaches from South Florida to 
Veracruz, Mexico, by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh NEly 
winds will follow the front through Sat. Meanwhile, fresh to 
locally strong winds will pulse nightly through late week off the 
northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural 
fires in southeastern Mexico will persist in the western Gulf
through Thu. Patchy fog is possible along the NW Gulf coast 
tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western 
Atlantic, and stretches southwestward across the NW Caribbean. 
Scattered moderate diurnal convection is weakening across the 
Greater Antilles, from eastern Cuba to Puerto Rico, as this area
has finally come under the western and sinking-air side of the
upper trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring across the SW Caribbean, about the monsoon trough, to
the S of 12N. The upper trough will continue to move farther 
northeast of the area through Thu night, with atmospheric
conditions stabilizing in its wake. Abundant tropical moisture 
remains prevalent just east of the NE Caribbean, where active 
weather enhanced by the upper trough continues. Persistent daily 
rainfall across the Greater Antilles and NE Caribbean Islands for 
the past several days has left soils at or near saturation, and 
river levels high across this region. Please see local weather 
advisories for specific information on hazardous local 
conditions.

The Bermuda ridge is centered across the central Atlantic and
extends a narrow ridge westward to central Florida. This pattern
is producing moderate to fresh trades over the south-central 
Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds
have developed this afternoon across the eastern Gulf of Honduras,
where seas have built to 4 to 5 ft. The remainder of the basin 
is under gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic
near 30N45W will maintain a ridge extending westward to support 
moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and SE 
Caribbean through the weekend. Meanwhile, expect pulses of fresh 
to locally strong E winds at night across the Gulf of Honduras 
through the weekend due to the pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW North Atlantic continues to be dominated by a broad ridge
anchored on a weak high center of 1020 mb, centered near 30N45W. 
The remnants of a frontal trough meander along 18N to 20N between
38W and the eastern tip of Cuba. The associated pressure gradient
between these frontal remnants and the ridge is producing 
moderate trade winds from 18N to about 24N and west of 60W and 
from 18N to 21N between 40W and 60W. Low level convergence across 
this area is combining with upper support by the upper trough 
described above, to produce scattered to numerous moderate 
convection from 18N to 23N between 42W and 62W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
in N to NE swell across this zone. To the west, stable 
atmospheric conditions prevail across the Bahamas and Florida, 
with no significant late afternoon convection present. Gentle SE 
to S winds and slight seas prevail W of 75W and S of 28N, becoming
S to SW winds to the N of 28N.

To the E, a dissipating frontal trough extends from 31N23W to
20N37W, and marks the eastern edge of the Bermuda High ridge.
Gentle northerly winds prevail between 35W and the trough.
Scattered light to moderate convection is along the trough to the
W of 23W, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
numerous along the trough E of 23W. E of the trough northerly 
winds dominate the region from the Azores to western Africa, and 
are locally fresh near the coast of Africa. Long period N to NE
swell is moving through this region, producing seas of 7 to 10 ft
to the N of 20N and E of 50W.  

For the forecast west of 55W, High pressure centered over the
central Atlantic will shift slowly NE into the weekend. This will
produce diminishing winds tonight. As a cold front approaches the
U.S. East Coast, fresh to strong winds will develop off northeast
Florida tonight through Fri night. The front will move across 
Florida late Fri night into Sat, bringing moderate to fresh winds 
on both sides of the boundary. The front will weaken late in the 
weekend as it moves east of 65W.

$$
Stripling