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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 292334
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N20W TO 02S28W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY 
S OF THE EQUATOR REACHING THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S35W. 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH 
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W. WITH THIS...A SLIGHT TO GENTLE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER.  
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
THAT EXTENDS OVER THE ATLANTIC REACHING THE CARIBBEAN AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N74W TO 19N79W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING E CUBA...THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS BOUNDARY 
INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS N OF HONDURAS FROM 19N79W TO 17N86W. NW 
OF THE SHEAR LINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS DEPICTED IN 
SCATTEROMETER DATA WHILE A SLIGHT E FLOW PREVAILS SE OF THE 
LINE. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-72W WHERE A MODERATE 
BREEZE PREVAILS AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHEAR LINE TO WEAKEN BECOMING 
DIFFUSE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN 
INCREASING TO STRONG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER E CUBA ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE FRONT 
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CONVECTION IS 
STILL EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND WIND CONVERGENCE PREVAIL. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER 
SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W. TO THE E...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 31N61W TO 21N74W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION 
PREVAILS N OF 25N BETWEEN 63W-72W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS 
CENTERED E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 33N49W. TO THE E OF THIS 
FEATURE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO 26N42W TO 23N41W. SCATTERED 
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W-
41W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
BASIN CENTERED NEAR 39N21W. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE W 
ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING. 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT 
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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