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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051721
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
08N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
06N19W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-04N AND E OF 24W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA 
TO A BASE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS REFLECTED AT 
LOW LEVELS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS 
WITH CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO REACHING 
THE SE GULF MAINLY S OF 27N AND E OF 86W. W OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL  
AXIS...A NW FLOW PREVAILS SUPPORTING STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS 
ACROSS THE W GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC 
INTO THE E GULF PROVIDING A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE NORTHWARD WITH CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE IN THE SW ATLANTIC 
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE W ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL CUBA FROM 27N77W TO 29N78W. 
THESE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
DEPICTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE ISLAND OF CUBA 
MAINLY N OF 19N AND W OF 78W. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF 
THE PRECIPITATION AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO 
THE N THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...FLASH FLOODING AND A HIGHER 
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CUBA ARE A THREAT. THIS AREA OF 
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP 
INTO A LOW PRESSURE AND MOVE N ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. UPPER-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES DOMINATING THE REMAINDER 
OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN AS NOTED IN 
SCATTEROMETER DATA. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS 
CONTINUES N OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-77W. OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER/MARINE CONDITIONS TO 
PREVAIL.  

...HISPANIOLA...

A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES DOMINATING THE ISLAND 
PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE N-NW ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC AND MOVES 
N AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO 
THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS 
ADVECTING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW  
ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 63W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CLEARLY 
DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N77W TO 21N78W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-32N 
AND W OF 69W. THIS AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE WITHIN 
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND MOVE NORTHWARD ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WEATHER 
OUTLOOK MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE E...A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 36N28W TO 24N60W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE BASIN...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 05-May-2015 17:21:26 UTC