000
AXNT20 KNHC 240521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jul 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0521 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: A Gale Warning has been issued by
Meteo-France for the waters offshore Agadir. Gale force N winds
are anticipated along with severe gusts through 24/03Z. For more 
information, please see Meteo-France's website at: 
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 03.5N
to 17.5N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are seen from 08N to 14N between 27W and 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W from 04N 
to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 08N to 13N between 43W and 50W.

A large tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with its axis 
near 60W from 18N southward. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 09N to 16N between
57W and 66W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and 
continues southwestward to 11N25W, and then westward to 10N43W. 
The ITCZ then extends from 10N48W to 07N57W. Aside from the 
convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 08N to 13N between 32W and 43W, 
and from 06N to 10N between 50W and 57W. Numerous moderate to 
isolated strong convection is seen offshore W Africa from 05N to 
11N and west of 18W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring in the far SW Caribbean generally S of 13N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad low pressure near northern Florida and a trough over SE 
Louisiana are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over 
the north-central and NE basin while mostly isolated showers are 
ongoing over the SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits. A 1017 mb
high located near 28N92W is leading to moderate or weaker 
anticyclonic winds and seas of less than 3 ft across much of the 
basin.

For the forecast, a broad low pressure near northern Florida is 
producing showers and thunderstorms. Over the next day or two, 
this system is forecast to move west-southwestward into the north-
central portion of the Gulf where some slow development is 
possible. By this weekend, the system is likely to move inland, 
ending its chances for development. Regardless of development, 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in 
association with this system across most of the NE and north- 
central Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
are forecast along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and 
evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over
the Bay of Campeche at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A combination of high moisture over the NW Caribbean and an
upper-level low over the region are leading to scattered heavy
showers in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is occurring over
Hispaniola and adjacent waters due to upper level diffluence. Over
the E Caribbean an approaching tropical waves is generating heavy
scattered moderate convection E of 66W, including the Lesser 
Antilles. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the region and a 1010 mb Colombia Low is leading to 
fresh to strong trades in the central and SW Caribbean, along with
6-8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in 
the E Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas 
prevail in the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds 
over the central Caribbean through the end of the week. Fresh to 
strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas in the Windward 
Passage are expected through the end of the week. Elsewhere, 
moderate to fresh winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features sections above for information 
regarding a Gale Warning over Agadir. 

Scattered showers are occurring N of Hispaniola and over the
Bahamas. The subtropical Atlantic waters are dominated by ridging
stemming from the 1030 mb Azores high. Fresh to strong easterly 
winds prevail N of Hispaniola and the Mona Passage while moderate 
to fresh trades are elsewhere S of 24N between 55W and 75W. Seas 4
to 7 ft are present in these waters. Fresh NE winds and seas of 
6-9 ft are occurring N of 17N and E of 35W. Strong to gale N to 
NE winds, and seas 9 to 13 ft are occurring in between the Canary
Islands, as well as near the coasts of Morocco, Western Sahara, 
and Mauritania. Much of the remaining basin is seeing moderate or 
weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast region. N of Hispaniola, 
including the approaches to the Windward Passage, fresh to strong 
winds and moderate seas are expected through the end of the week. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow along with mostly 
moderate seas are expected. A frontal boundary is forecast to 
reach the NE waters toward the end of the work-week and dissipate,
with little change expected in winds and seas. 

$$
KRV