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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050546
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 
07N14W TO 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 02N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 13W-20W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN 
SEA. WEST OF THE AXIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS PROVIDING 
FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS 
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED 
FROM 30N93W TO 25N91W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE 
RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS BASIN PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE 
WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED IN 
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GULF HOWEVER IS EXPECTED 
TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE TROUGHING 
LACKS A SURFACE FRONT...SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING IS REFLECTED AT 
THE SURFACE WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 
22N84W TO THE CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N85W. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE THE 
PRIMARY INGREDIENT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 
17N BETWEEN 76W-86W. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO OCCUR 
ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA...AS WELL AS 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT 
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND A 
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN A THREAT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 
72W IS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH OVERALL STABLE 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE 
BASIN. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES E OF 78W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE 
TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...                                        
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION 
PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE N-NW ACROSS THE SW NORTH 
ATLC AND MOVES GENERALLY NORTH AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO 
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO 
ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW 
NORTH ATLC W OF 65W THIS EVENING. WHILE NO SPECIFIC SURFACE 
FEATURE IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING 
OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 20N-30N W OF 70W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS 
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
NW BAHAMAS AND MOVE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST...A 
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 38N39W 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N41W SW TO 28N50W TO 
25N61W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 31N-35N 
BETWEEN 25W-41W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC 
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N51W. FINALLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST EASTERN ATLC FROM 32N09W SW TO 
25N20W TO 23N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 05-May-2015 05:47:01 UTC