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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251805
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...

THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE 
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 FEET TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO
ONCE THE EVENT BEGINS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE 
DETAILS.  

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF LIBERIA. THE 
ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE 
AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 7N13W...5N20W 4N35W 7N49W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 6N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N 
SOUTHWARD FROM 44W EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W 
FROM 6N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W 
INCLUDING INLAND/COASTAL AREAS FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST 
STATES. THE COLD FRONT OF 24 HOURS AGO NOW PASSES THROUGH THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND 
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 
31N85W...TO 27N87W 23N91W 19N95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST AND 
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA NEAR 
31N85W...TO 27N87W 23N91W 19N95W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST... 
INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER 
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. 

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KHQI...KVQT... 
KATP...AND KVOA. 

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL FLORIDA 
FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 
19N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE 
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST OF 22N80W 18N82W 16N84W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN 
COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N75W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE 
BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 
32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW MOVES 
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE AREA THAT 
IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS WIND FLOW IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 32N42W TO 23N43W 
14N45W AND TO 10N49W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 
TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...IN 
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 
70W EASTWARD...FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND FROM 
19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. 

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.15 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO... 
0.06 IN ST. THOMAS...0.05 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.02 IN TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N80W... 
BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...REMNANT RAINSHOWERS...FROM EARLIER SCATTERED 
STRONG...ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN TRADE WIND 
FLOW...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN 
COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N75W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE 
BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 
32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS 
CROSSING HISPANIOLA. 

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN 
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN 
SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN 
LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. 

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS EVENTUALLY BECOMES 
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR REST OF THE 48 HOUR 
FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR 
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO THE WATERS THAT ARE 
BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE 48-HOUR 
FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE 
FROM THE 23N75W IN THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF 
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO 
NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 19N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 
16N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE 
WEST OF 22N80W 18N82W 16N84W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN 
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE 
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.56 IN 
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N 
BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE 
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 25N73W...TO 22N77W AT THE 
COAST OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN 
COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N75W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE 
BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 
32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.  1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 33N59W TO 27N65W...TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 
22N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
18N81W. THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEYOND 32N73W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.  

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N59W TO 27N65W...TO THE 
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N81W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 
23N43W 14N45W AND TO 10N49W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W 
TO 27N30W 22N36W AND 20N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 29W AND 
31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 23N 
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 22W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 28W AND 42W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 
34W AND 48W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 6N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE 
FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W INCLUDING INLAND/COASTAL 
AREAS FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA. 

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 
32N15W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 17N27W JUST TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-Dec-2014 18:05:17 UTC