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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230558
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 15N southward. 
This position is based on satellite imagery. Convective 
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to 
10N beween 20W and 22W, and from 05N to 08N between 23W and 28W.
isolated moderate elsewhere from 05N to 11N between 18W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 21N
southward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 04N 
to 22N between 30W and 40W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/48W from 16N 
southward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N
southward between 40W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving through the Mona Passage.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate in the Mona Passage. 
Isolated moderate to locally strong from 18N to 21N between the 
Windward Passage and 80W. rainshowers are possible within 200 nm 
of the southern shores of Hispaniola.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/81W from Cuba to the 
western part of Panama. Convective precipitation: scattered 
strong in eastern sections of Honduras. isolated moderate from 14N
to 17N between 80W and 84W, in the coastal waters of Honduras and
Nicaragua. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 11N23W, to 13N35W and 12N43W. The ITCZ continues 
from 11N50W to 09N61W in NE Venezuela. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate elsewhere from 14N southward between Africa and
60W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N91W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers Florida and the Gulf of Mexico
from 85W eastward, with the 30N76W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic
circulation center. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest
of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 25N northward, and from 24N southward.

A surface ridge extends from Lake Okeechobee in south Florida,
into the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to 20N97W, into 
the coastal plains of Mexico. 

A thermal trough is in the Yucatan Peninsula. 

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N 
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD, and FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MVFR: at KBBF, KHHV, KATP. Convective precipitation: isolated 
moderate from 25N northward. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Galliano.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in McComb. MVFR in the Hattiesburg metropolitan
area. FLORIDA: MVFR in Perry.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 16N
northward between the Mona Passage and NW Cuba. A tropical wave is
moving through the Mona Passage. Convective precipitation: 
isolated moderate in the Mona Passage. Isolated moderate to
locally strong from 18N to 21N between the Windward Passage and
80W. rainshowers are possible within 200 nm of the southern shores
of Hispaniola. A second tropical wave is along 79W/81W from Cuba
to the western part of Panama. Convective precipitation: scattered
strong in eastern sections of Honduras. isolated moderate from 14N
to 17N between 80W and 84W, in the coastal waters of Honduras and
Nicaragua. 

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the
easternmost part of the area, to the E and SE of the trough/
cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: numerous strong is
in Colombia from 07N to 09N between 74W and 77W.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 
23/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.40 in 
Guadeloupe.

Hispaniola is on the eastern side of an upper level trough. The 
trough extends from a 30N76W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation 
center. Upper level southerly wind flow is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana:
VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that either southerly wind
or cyclonic wind flow will cover Hispaniola during the first 24
hours or so of the 48-hour forecast period. A trough either will
be to the west of Hispaniola, or it will be on top of the area.
Anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that Hispaniola will be 
on the southern side of an Atlantic Ocean ridge. An inverted
trough will move across the area during day one. NE-to-E wind flow
will move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast 
for 700 mb shows that E-to-SE wind flow will move across the 
area, with Hispaniola on the southern side of an Atlantic Ocean 
ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center
is about 250 nm to the east of NE Florida. The cyclonic wind flow
that surrounds the cyclonic center covers the Atlantic Ocean and 
the Bahamas, and parts of Cuba and Hispaniola and the northern
parts of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers
are possible from 20N to 30N between 70W and interior sections of
Florida, and also in the coastal waters of Florida in the Gulf of
Mexico.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center and associated trough
are about 1510 nm to the west of the Western Sahara in Africa.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N
northward between 38W and 55W. 

A surface ridge passes through 32N30W, to 27N39W 28N57W, to a 1023
mb high pressure center that is near 29N65W, across south Florida,
into the central Gulf of Mexico.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT