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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 020552
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 29.1W AT 02/0300 UTC 
OR ABOUT 356 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 11 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 25W-29W. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 6N-
20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SSMI TPW DOES NOT 
SHOW ANY SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N66W ACROSS 
PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N71W 
MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE 
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED 
DEEP CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 85W S OF 18N TO INLAND 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W-SW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED 
DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N W 
OF 84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER AFRICA TO THE COAST THEN 
RESUMES S OF TROPICAL STORM FRED NEAR 13N29W TO 7N49W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 37W-41W AND 
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 44W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 28N-35W AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 36W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS INTO THE 
GULF NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERING THE 
W GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N95W 26N92W TO 
OVER LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER 
CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE E YUCATAN 
PENINSULA COVERING THE E GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF 
ERIKA EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF JUST N OF 
CEDAR KEY TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N85W THEN S-SW TO 26N87W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH E OF THE SURFACE LOW. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S 
OVER THE NW GULF AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OVER 
TENNESSEE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED BEFORE 
DISSIPATING WED NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 
FRI. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
AN UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED W OF JAMAICA 
NEAR 18N80W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED N 
OF 20N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 79W-84W. THE UPPER TROUGH 
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N66W 
TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 
62W-76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE 
FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH 
THU. THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA WED. 
THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND WED THEN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT 
THROUGH FRI. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH AN UPPER 
LOW NEAR 20N66W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND THE GULF 
OF GONAVE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH 
WED NIGHT BEFORE SHIFT SE EARLY THU. MOISTURE WILL PERSIST 
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY THU BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ISLAND WED AND EARLY THU. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS E ALONG 27N72W TO 26N52W. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS 
OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND IS 
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 45-56W. A NARROW UPPER 
TROUGH DIPS S INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N37W ALONG 
25N42W 22N55W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N66W THEN TO OVER 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
FROM 33N37W ALONG 30N39W TO 27N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE 
WITH A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N69W. SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN WILL SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN 
AS A WEAK FRONT SINKS SLOWLY S INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA 
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 05:52:41 UTC