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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 310518
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS 
ALONG 31N71W TO 26N80W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING N OF 
30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-FORCE WINDS 
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 10.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH 
SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH AROUND 1200 UTC TODAY...AND RESUME AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING 
FOR A PERIOD OF SIX HOURS. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 05N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 01N30W TO 00N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF 
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 75W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS SW CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN THE GULF FROM 26N82W 
TO 25N91W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS TO 26N98W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE N 
OF THE FRONTS. E TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS. 
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE 
ACROSS THE FL STRAITS TODAY AND OVER CUBA TONIGHT. THE WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY 
FRONT...WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT 
AND LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE TX/LA COAST. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E US WILL SHIFT INTO THE W 
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH 
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF GALE FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ALSO SUPPORTS NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT IS INHIBITING 
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS 
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE N COAST OF HONDURAS AS WELL AS OVER 
JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE OVER CUBA AND BECOME STATIONARY. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING 
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SE 
INTO THE AREA IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ISLAND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ENHANCED 
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 75W AND BASE ALONG 30N SUPPORTS 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 31N71W SW TO SOUTH 
FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT 
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS N OF 
30N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION FOR DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 31N53W TO 20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 
NM OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N36W IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 
30W AND 37W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033 MB CENTERED NEAR 
38N32W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
QUICKLY E TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE TODAY.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Jan-2015 05:18:56 UTC