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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 311730
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 1S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-3S BETWEEN 0W-20W...AND FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 
34W-45W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W 
PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER COVERS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS OVER THE NW GULF WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS 
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NW GULF DUE TO RETURN FLOW...WITH 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE TAIL END OF A 
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 
21N70W TO 19N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
FRONT TO INCLUDE E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA. FURTHER E... SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH AXIS ALONG 60W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS A FRONT 
REMAINS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
31N70W TO 29N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N45W TO 
24N55W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE AT 21N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONTS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N40W TO 20N40W. A 1038 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N18W. SURFACE 
RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W. OF INTEREST 
OVER THE THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-80W SUPPORTING THE WEAK SURFACE 
FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-45W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD 
FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO 
MOVE N OF 31N...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT CONTINUES 
DRIFT E TO 31N42W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Mar-2015 17:30:13 UTC