000
AXNT20 KNHC 050353
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jun 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0335 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 31W, south of
13N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the
trough axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 06N30W and then from 05N33W to 02N50W.
No significant convection is occurring along these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft and tropical moisture continue to produce
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern
Gulf of America. Recent satellite imagery also depict a few storms
affecting the waters off SE Texas and SW Louisiana. Generally dry
conditions are present elsewhere in the basin.

A weak pressure gradient remains across the Gulf waters, 
supporting moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds south of 26N, 
along with seas of 3-6 ft (1-2 m). A recent scatterometer 
satellite pass confirmed these winds. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the 
Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each
afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves
westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds across the western
and south-central Gulf through early Mon between a trough over 
northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An unstable weather pattern continues across the NW Caribbean,
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
especially in the Gulf of Honduras. Similar weather conditions are
evident in the SW Caribbean. Mariners can expect gusty winds,
frequent lightning and higher seas. Elsewhere, generally dry 
conditions prevail.

The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forcing strong
to near gale-force easterly trade winds off northern Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela. This was confirmed by a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in this waters are 8-10 ft 
(2.5-3 m). Fresh to strong easterly winds are evident across the
remainder of the central and western Caribbean, including the 
Windward Passage. Seas of 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m) are found across much
of the area described. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 
moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough 
seas across most of the basin will diminish on Fri and Sat, then 
increase Sat night into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 28N71W, followed by a
stationary front to 31N80W. A few showers are noted near the
frontal boundaries. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a broad subtropical ridge situated near 39N38W. The 
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the 
deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds south 
of 25N and west of 60W. The strongest winds are found off 
northern Hispaniola and at the entrance of the Windward Passage. 
Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). Moderate to fresh 
easterly winds and moderate seas are evident south of 22N and west
of 35W.

Latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to locally
near gale-force N-NE winds are occurring east of a line from
31N15W to 15N33W. The strongest winds are evident just off
Morocco. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft (2-3 m). Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front SE of Bermuda will
drift southward and dissipate through Fri. The remnant trough 
will push northward Fri into Sat as high pressure builds westward 
over the forecast waters. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly
offshore Hispaniola through Fri.

$$
Delgado