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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 241044

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

Tropical wave extends from 07N31W to 14N32W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave remains fairly low-amplitude and coincides with 700 mb
troughing S of 13N between 28W-34W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-13N between 26W-34W.

Tropical wave extends from 09N59W to 16N55W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with global model indicated 700 mb troughing
between 51W-61W with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in
the vicinity of the wave axis near 12N. No significant deep
convection is associated with the wave at this time.

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 11N15W
to 07N27W to 08N35W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
extends from 08N35W to 08N48W. Scattered moderate and widely
scattered strong convection is from 02N-10N between 12W-26W.


A middle to upper level ridge is anchored over the Gulf basin this
morning with water vapor imagery indicating a middle to upper
level shortwave trough progressing eastward over central and
eastern Texas. With the ridging in place...overall stable
conditions prevail with satellite imagery showing middle to upper
level cloudiness over much of the western and central waters due
to the approaching trough. At the surface...a ridge continues to
be anchored by a pair of 1025 mb highs centered over Mississippi
and southern Georgia providing mostly gentle to moderate E-SE
winds across the Gulf this morning. The ridge is forecast to be
reinforced by a another ridge settling into the Great Lakes region
Monday night into Tuesday increasing the pressure gradient across
the region with resulting winds increasing into moderate to fresh
breeze levels across the eastern Gulf and Florida Straits. This
overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Thursday

The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water
vapor imagery over Cuba and a portion of the NW Caribbean
supporting a weakening stationary front analyzed across eastern
Cuba the Cayman Islands to near 17N85W. Low-level convergence in
the vicinity and south of the front along with ample middle to
upper level dynamics are supporting isolated showers and possible
isolated tstms generally N of 14N between 74W-83W. Overall
moderate to occasional fresh NE winds prevail across the NW
Caribbean N of the weakening front. Elsewhere...the eastern and
central Caribbean are under mostly fair skies with gentle to
moderate trades prevailing. These trades are expected to persist
through Monday. One exception is the southern extent of a surface
trough boundary reaching across Puerto Rico to 16N69W. Isolated
showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the trough axis.

Currently isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring
across northern portions of the island and the adjacent Atlc
coastal waters as maximum middle to upper level diffluence lies
to the E of an upper level trough with axis over eastern Cuba and
Jamaica. This diffluence along with a weak low-level surface
convergence zone is generating the unsettled weather this morning.
Increased probability of widely scattered showers and tstms is
expected through Monday as the frontal troughing lingers across
the region.

A broad middle to upper level trough is noted over the SW North
Atlc supporting a cold front extending from 32N58W SW to near the
Turks and Caicos Islands to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring N of 22N between the front and 55W.
Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring across Hispaniola
and the adjacent coastal waters N of 18N between 64W-73W. W of
the cold front...gentle to moderate N-NW winds prevail across the
SW North Atlc as high pressure anchors itself across the SE CONUS
and Florida peninsula. Farther upper level low is
centered near 21N51W and continues to advect tropical moisture
northward across portions of the central Atlc. Given the favorable
middle to upper level dynamics in place...scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring from 09N-23N between 38W-48W. This
area remains within the southern periphery of a surface ridge
anchored across the central Atlc by a 1026 mb high centered N of
the discussion area near 35N40W. Otherwise...the remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a dissipating cold front
analyzed from West Africa near 25N15W to 22N25W to 24N36W. With
the parent 993 mb surface low centered W-SW of the Iberian
peninsula near 38N17W...fresh to occasional strong N-NW winds
continue filtering in across the NE portion of the discussion
area. The low is expected to remain nearly stationary through
Tuesday night then begin weakening while drifting SW through

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