000
AXNT20 KNHC 030503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0455 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 07N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 02S33W and to 03N50W. Widely
scattered showers are present south of 04N and east of 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft and tropical moisture support a few showers over
the NW Gulf while generally dry conditions are present in the rest
of the basin. A weak high pressure over the NW Gulf sustain
moderate to fresh E-SE winds and seas of 3-6 ft south of 25N and
west of 88W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found in
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high pressure
over Florida and the eastern Gulf, and relatively lower pressures
over the rest of the Gulf and in Mexico will support mostly fresh
southeast winds over the western and central Gulf through the 
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night for the
next few days near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula due
to local effects induced by a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper trough reaches north of the Caribbean from over 
Bermuda through the northern Bahamas. This is supporting a surface
trough over Haiti, which in turn is disrupting the normal 
subtropical ridge that is resident to the north of the Caribbean. 
This is resulting in relatively light winds and modest seas across
western half of the basin. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 3-6 ft 
seas are noted elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean. Divergent 
flow aloft associated with the upper trough is also supporting 
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Windward Passage, 
eastern Cuba, and the higher terrain of Haiti and the Dominican 
Republic. Refer to local weather advisories for information 
regarding any heavy rainfall or related flooding.

For the forecast, high pressure centered N of the region is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds over the central and 
eastern Caribbean. These winds will gradually subside into the 
weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. Moderate to fresh 
northeast winds are expected in the lee of Cuba, northwestern 
Caribbean, and just in the Windward Passage into Fri night and in 
the Windward Passage Sat night and Sun night. Gentle to moderate 
trade winds are expected over the area through the forecast 
period, except for mostly fresh winds in the south-central 
Caribbean. The interaction between a trough along 80W/81W south of
20N with the base of a western Atlantic upper-level trough that 
extends into the western Caribbean has resulted in the development
of scattered showers and thunderstorms from the eastern tip of 
Cuba to the Windward Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp upper trough reaches north of the Caribbean from over 
Bermuda through the northern Bahamas. This is supporting a
surface trough along roughly 73W south of 25N. Another surface
trough is analyzed along 63W south of 27N. Divergent 
flow aloft associated with the upper troughs supports scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms south of a line from 31N to the
SE Bahamas and between 57W and 75W. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds are noted south of 27N and west of 55W. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail north of 27N and west of 55W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
high pressure system near the Azores. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south
of 20N and west of 30W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are occurring
east of 25N and north of 13N. Seas in the area described are 4-8
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in the 
Caribbean Sea is allowing for generally moderate to fresh east 
winds to be south of about 25N, including the approaches to the 
Windward Passage. A surface trough is expected to soon form north-
northeast of Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and the trough will support pulsing strong east to southeast east 
of the trough, and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds west 
of the trough. Presently, an upper trough is over the western 
Atlantic. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are east of this 
trough. The trough is expected to help promote the formation of 
weak low pressure along the soon to form surface trough on Fri. 
The low will track east-northeastward Fri through Sat, and weaken 
back into a trough while exiting the area on Sun. High pressure 
will then take precedence over the entire area early next week. 
Moderate to fresh south winds are forecast to develop over the 
waters east of northeastern Florida Tue and Tue night.

$$
Delgado