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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250606
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 1N TO 11N WITH AXIS NEAR 
38W...MOVING W AT 13 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW 
IMAGERY SHOW HIGH CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AT MIDDLE TO LOWER 
LEVELS W AND E OF ITS AXIS. IN THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE 
WAVE AXIS...THIS MOISTURE CONCENTRATES FROM THE CENTER TO THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF IT. THE MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
400 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 05N TO 08N AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
IT FROM 03N TO 05N. METEOSAT DUST AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY 
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN REGION 
OF THE WAVE...THIS RESULTING IN THE LACK OF CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 13N16W TO 08N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N19W AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 05N27W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N36W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND THE ITCZ E OF 30W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE. WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N41W TO 01N44W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL 
ROCKIES EXTENDS A TROUGH SE ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE W 
GULF...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N91W TO 15N93W. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A CENTER OF 1032 MB OVER THE 
NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TO 90W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 
95W AND IN THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 84W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL 
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO 
EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS GENERATING 
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW BASIN...RESULTING IN WINDS 
OF 20 TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 
11 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 15N W OF 70W AND E OF 79W...TRADES OF 15 
KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NE BASIN...ENHANCED BY SHALLOW MOISTURE. 
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. 
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE ISLAND...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER 
THE ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXCEPT SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO 
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W SW TO 29N69W 
TO 29N79W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ELSEWHERE 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TRANSITIONING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY 
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Monday, 25-May-2015 06:06:58 UTC