Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290553
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING FROM 
11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WARNING CRITERIA BY 29/1800 UTC. SEE 
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ 
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 18N34W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY 700 MB FLOW WITH A 
MAXIMUM OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE S OF 12N IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS 
TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N54W TO 18N53W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 50W-
60W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT 
THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 19N77W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 76W-84W 
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N90W TO 20N90W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 88W-
94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 89W-
93W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
20N16W TO 18N18W TO 12N20W TO 10N34W TO 10N39W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N39W TO 
11N45W TO 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N 
BETWEEN 19W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 
06N-12N BETWEEN 21W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                       
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS 
EVENING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES MOST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF 90W 
PRIMARILY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. AN AREA OF 
LOWER PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA 
PENINSULA FOCUSED ON A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL 
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N-29N 
BETWEEN 83W-87W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N88W IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY 
STRONGER WINDS NOTED OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY W-NW THROUGH 
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO 
EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH 
LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING 
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS 
ALOFT FOCUSED ON TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N83W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO 
RICO NEAR 19N67W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
CLEAR SKIES WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN REMAINING NEAR 
GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 67W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...                               
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL 
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE 
AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 36N66W TO 
29N74W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
32N74W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 30N78W AND 
SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 72W-
80W...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 59W-72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW 
NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 27N60W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. 
FURTHERMORE...FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB 
HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Jul-2015 05:54:00 UTC