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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041041
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT MON MAY 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO 
04N15W TO 02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 02N20W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN THE PRIME 
MERIDIAN AND 11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 11W-17W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N 
BETWEEN 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N89W TO OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N89W TO 30N89W. WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE UNDERNEATH THE BACK SIDE OF 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...NW FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT OVERALL 
CONVECTION...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 85W-89W. OTHERWISE...THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING 
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N75W SW 
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF 
THIS MORNING. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 
22N85W TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. THE 
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N82W TO 
16N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS... 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-23N 
BETWEEN 74W-85W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS AS WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 73W. ONE 
EXCEPTION IS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 11N 
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY TUESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES EXPANDING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE 
ISLAND AND ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN 
SEA...THESE BOUNDARIES ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N W OF 73W THIS 
MORNING. IT IS LIKELY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 
REGION ENHANCING THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA AND THE 
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN 
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 40N49W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 
31N65W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
39N48W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 32N50W WHICH QUICKLY BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 31N53W 
AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 23N69W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER W OF 
65W...MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NW 
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROUGH REMAIN FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 65W-81W. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED 
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W. FARTHER EAST...THE 
CENTRAL ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N46W. FINALLY... 
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 40N16W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED 
FROM 32N15W SW TO 27N25W TO 25N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES 
DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Monday, 04-May-2015 10:41:54 UTC