AXNT20 KNHC 251816 CCA
Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016
Corrected for typos
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Post-tropical cyclone Karl is centered near 39.9N 47.9W at
25/1500 UTC or about 465 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland,
moving NE at 43 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is being
sheared to the NE of the center from 40N to 43N between 45W and
48W. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
A tropical wave over the east Tropical Atlantic extends from
06N37W to a 1010 mb surface low centered near 08N37W to 14N35W.
The wave is moving W near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. This
wave still coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in model
guidance. The wave is the leading edge of a surge of deep
moisture reaching all the way E to the African coast in TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is seen within 90 nm either side of a line from 09N41W to 14N37W.
A tropical wave in the west-central Tropical Atlantic extends
from 12N59W to 22N58W, moving W around 15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave is still tracking with a 700 mb trough depicted
in model guidance and a surge of moderate moisture as seen in
TPW imagery. Isolated moderate convection is present in a small
area on the S side of the wave from 12N to 14N between 60W and
The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N16W to the 1010 mb low described above centered
near 08N39W to 06N43W. The ITCZ extends from 06N39W to 07N50W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave and low
along 35W, isolated moderate convection is present from 07N-12N
GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper-level low remains centered over the Florida Panhandle
near 31N87W. Divergent upper-level winds on the SW side of the
low are triggering moderate convection E of Texas and S of
Louisiana from 26N to 29N between 90W and 97W. A surface trough
reaches over the Bay of Campeche from 19N94W to 22N94W. A
surface ridge N of the United States gulf coast will generally
maintain light to moderate E to SE winds across the basin
through Monday. A weak cold front will reach the NW Gulf by late
Monday, then stall and dissipate by Tuesday.
An upper-level low is centered just SE of Puerto Rico near
17N65W. Convergent NW to W flow aloft on the W side of the low
is suppressing convection over most of the basin. Divergent
upper-level winds are supporting cloudiness and scattered
moderate convection across the western Caribbean W of 85W over
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The Monsoon Trough passes over
Costa Rica and Panama. Low-level convergence near the trough is
generating scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
over the Caribbean waters S of 12N. Satellite-derived wind data
show moderate to fresh trades across the basin except S of 15N
between 68W-75W where fresh to strong winds prevail. Little
change is expected within the next 24 hours. A tropical wave
will approach from the E with isolated showers affecting the
Lesser Antilles Sunday night.
Only isolated showers are observed across the island at this
time. Upper-level convergence associated with an upper-level low
centered SE of Puerto Rico is the culprit. However, the upper-
level low will provide enough instability to enhance afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.
Karl has become post-tropical over the N Atlc. Two tropical
waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the special
features and tropical waves sections for details. To the E of
this activity; a weak 1017 surface high is located NE of the
Bahamas near 27N74W. A surface trough stretches along the SE
coast of Florida from 24N81W to 27N79W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is found from 23N to 29N between 76W
and 81W. The remnants of T.D Lisa were analyzed as a 1011 mb
low centered near 28N42W. Isolated moderate convection
associated with the monsoon trough spreads from 04N to 13N
between 19W and 35W. The remainder of the basin remains under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered near 38N21W and a 1025mb high centered near 32N28W.
Expect for Karl to continue moving NE and become a hurricane by
Sunday. A cold front will drop S into the central Atlantic on
Monday, accompanied by convection. The front will become
stationary by Tuesday.
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