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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281022
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 04N08W TO 
02N13W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 03S23W 
TO 03S30W 01S37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S43W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05S E 
OF 04W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09S TO THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 10W AND 33W...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF 
NORTHERN BRAZIL S OF 06N W OF 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...    

A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF 
OF MEXICO IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER THE SW N ATLC ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NW 
HONDURAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH 
AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND 
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WHERE IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 
27N93W. RIDGING AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN 
GULF DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND 
FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF 91W. LIGHTER VARIABLE WIND FLOW 
DOMINATES OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST 
TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA TO NW HONDURAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT 
ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW 
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 78W. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW 
DRY AIR DOMINATING ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH IS 
FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN 
W OF 80W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA 
SW TO NEARLY 80W WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT 
TO BELIZE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 
GREAT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE 
ISLAND WHILE SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE SURROUNDS ITS 
ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SOME CLOUDINESS BUT 
NO SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND 
FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO NEARLY 80W WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION TO A 
STATIONARY FRONT TO BELIZE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND GREAT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE FRONT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ALONG 31N73W SW TO 
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NW HONDURAS. 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE 
SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 
30N35W SW TO 22N42W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE 
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE 
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Mar-2015 10:22:33 UTC